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2026 ballot measure forecast

Vermont Proposal 4

Constitutional equal protection guarantee

Bars the state from denying equal treatment based on race, sex, religion, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity and other traits, while allowing measures for historically disadvantaged groups. The forecast has Yes at 74.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCivil rightsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
74.6%
80% range 68 to 80
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
72.7%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
78.1% Yes
Polls
72.7% Yes
Forecast
74.6% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority.
The campaign

Backed by Democratic legislators and the Vermont Human Rights Commission; small opposition group noprop4vt.org.

Also on the Vermont ballot

Proposal 3
Constitutional right to collective bargaining
>99%

Proposal 4 by county

Addison CountyBennington CountyCaledonia CountyChittenden CountyEssex CountyFranklin CountyGrand Isle CountyLamoille CountyOrange CountyOrleans CountyRutland CountyWashington CountyWindham CountyWindsor CountyChittendenWashingtonWindsorRutlandWindhamFranklinAddisonBenningtonOrangeCaledoniaLamoilleOrleans
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Chittenden County: Yes +50,552Washington County: Yes +16,451Windsor County: Yes +14,614Windham County: Yes +12,025Rutland County: Yes +9,890Addison County: Yes +9,740Bennington County: Yes +7,608Franklin County: Yes +7,340Lamoille County: Yes +6,328Orange County: Yes +6,304Caledonia County: Yes +5,383Orleans County: Yes +3,742Grand Isle County: Yes +1,755Essex County: Yes +608
Yes +152,340 net votes from 14 countiesStatewide Yes +49.2, a 152,340 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

309,472 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes230,90674.6%
No78,56625.4%
Total309,472100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Chittenden County66,86016,30883,16880.4%
Washington County23,1086,65729,76577.6%
Windsor County21,6307,01628,64675.5%
Rutland County19,0969,20628,30267.5%
Windham County16,9624,93721,89977.5%
Franklin County14,5627,22221,78466.8%
Addison County14,3844,64419,02875.6%
Bennington County12,4294,82117,25072.1%
Orange County10,4864,18214,66871.5%
Caledonia County9,6204,23713,85769.4%
Lamoille County9,3473,01912,36675.6%
Orleans County7,8714,12912,00065.6%
Grand Isle County2,9021,1474,04971.7%
Essex County1,6491,0412,69061.3%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
UNH Survey Center (Green Mountain State Poll)835 LV2026-09-216921972.7%
How this is built
Proposal 4 is forecast as a civil rights measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Vermont's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, sevendaysvt.com. All measures.