2026 ballot measure forecast
Rhode Island Question 4
$50M cultural economy bond
Authorizes $50M in bonds: $45M new State History Center, $5M historic preservation grants. The forecast has Yes at 66.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
94%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.3%80% range 53 to 77
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 66.3% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 66.3% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of those voting on the question. Question numbers follow the enacted budget (H 7127, Article 5) order; confirm against the official ballot.
The campaign
Placed by the FY2027 budget signed June 12, 2026; no organized opposition or polling found.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +129,854 net votes from 5 countiesStatewide Yes +32.4, a 129,854 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
400,450 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 265,152 | 66.2% |
| No | 135,298 | 33.8% |
| Total | 400,450 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence County | 139,131 | 70,891 | 210,022 | 66.2% |
| Kent County | 46,807 | 25,232 | 72,039 | 65.0% |
| Washington County | 40,375 | 20,476 | 60,851 | 66.4% |
| Newport County | 23,937 | 11,543 | 35,480 | 67.5% |
| Bristol County | 14,902 | 7,156 | 22,058 | 67.6% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 4 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Rhode Island's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: webserver.rilegislature.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.