2026 ballot measure forecast
Oklahoma State Question 845
Restructure Judicial Nominating Commission
Changes who can serve on the Judicial Nominating Commission and how members are selected, including appointments by current congressional districts. The forecast has Yes at 78.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
78.6%80% range 68 to 87
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 78.6% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 78.6% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Legislative referral from the GOP majority; Oklahoma Policy Institute urges no, saying it strips protections in choosing top judges; no money reported.
Also on the Oklahoma ballot
State Question 847
Lower annual caps on taxable property value growth
>99%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +704,790 net votes from 77 countiesStatewide Yes +57.2, a 704,790 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
1,231,082 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 967,936 | 78.6% |
| No | 263,146 | 21.4% |
| Total | 1,231,082 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma County | 173,056 | 62,251 | 235,307 | 73.5% |
| Tulsa County | 156,188 | 50,238 | 206,426 | 75.7% |
| Cleveland County | 72,750 | 23,461 | 96,211 | 75.6% |
| Canadian County | 43,512 | 11,175 | 54,687 | 79.6% |
| Rogers County | 29,466 | 6,479 | 35,945 | 82.0% |
| Wagoner County | 23,803 | 5,555 | 29,358 | 81.1% |
| Comanche County | 21,273 | 6,390 | 27,663 | 76.9% |
| Payne County | 18,899 | 5,573 | 24,472 | 77.2% |
| Creek County | 19,556 | 4,259 | 23,815 | 82.1% |
| Pottawatomie County | 17,858 | 4,267 | 22,125 | 80.7% |
| Grady County | 15,873 | 3,174 | 19,047 | 83.3% |
| Muskogee County | 15,059 | 3,980 | 19,039 | 79.1% |
| Logan County | 14,853 | 3,487 | 18,340 | 81.0% |
| Washington County | 14,716 | 3,502 | 18,218 | 80.8% |
| Garfield County | 14,108 | 3,145 | 17,253 | 81.8% |
| McClain County | 13,368 | 2,741 | 16,109 | 83.0% |
| Osage County | 12,736 | 3,243 | 15,979 | 79.7% |
| Carter County | 11,846 | 2,619 | 14,465 | 81.9% |
| Cherokee County | 11,326 | 3,132 | 14,458 | 78.3% |
| Stephens County | 11,709 | 2,306 | 14,015 | 83.5% |
| Delaware County | 11,598 | 2,395 | 13,993 | 82.9% |
| Le Flore County | 11,406 | 2,218 | 13,624 | 83.7% |
| Pittsburg County | 11,246 | 2,359 | 13,605 | 82.7% |
| Bryan County | 11,024 | 2,327 | 13,351 | 82.6% |
| Mayes County | 10,966 | 2,337 | 13,303 | 82.4% |
| Kay County | 10,576 | 2,479 | 13,055 | 81.0% |
| Pontotoc County | 9,572 | 2,307 | 11,879 | 80.6% |
| Lincoln County | 9,710 | 1,922 | 11,632 | 83.5% |
| Sequoyah County | 9,464 | 1,926 | 11,390 | 83.1% |
| Okmulgee County | 8,913 | 2,239 | 11,152 | 79.9% |
| McCurtain County | 7,435 | 1,362 | 8,797 | 84.5% |
| Garvin County | 7,065 | 1,350 | 8,415 | 84.0% |
| Ottawa County | 6,760 | 1,514 | 8,274 | 81.7% |
| Custer County | 6,715 | 1,505 | 8,220 | 81.7% |
| Caddo County | 5,933 | 1,423 | 7,356 | 80.7% |
| McIntosh County | 5,352 | 1,211 | 6,563 | 81.5% |
| Seminole County | 5,102 | 1,191 | 6,293 | 81.1% |
| Jackson County | 5,195 | 1,096 | 6,291 | 82.6% |
| Beckham County | 4,995 | 894 | 5,889 | 84.8% |
| Woodward County | 4,928 | 853 | 5,781 | 85.2% |
| Adair County | 4,661 | 928 | 5,589 | 83.4% |
| Pawnee County | 4,335 | 909 | 5,244 | 82.7% |
| Kingfisher County | 4,388 | 770 | 5,158 | 85.1% |
| Marshall County | 3,985 | 791 | 4,776 | 83.4% |
| Craig County | 3,840 | 812 | 4,652 | 82.5% |
| Murray County | 3,723 | 755 | 4,478 | 83.1% |
| Atoka County | 3,663 | 644 | 4,307 | 85.0% |
| Choctaw County | 3,583 | 692 | 4,275 | 83.8% |
| Texas County | 3,426 | 634 | 4,060 | 84.4% |
| Noble County | 3,171 | 677 | 3,848 | 82.4% |
| Hughes County | 3,108 | 621 | 3,729 | 83.3% |
| Haskell County | 3,116 | 563 | 3,679 | 84.7% |
| Washita County | 3,151 | 519 | 3,670 | 85.9% |
| Pushmataha County | 3,007 | 518 | 3,525 | 85.3% |
| Nowata County | 2,917 | 548 | 3,465 | 84.2% |
| Johnston County | 2,676 | 510 | 3,186 | 84.0% |
| Okfuskee County | 2,567 | 560 | 3,127 | 82.1% |
| Latimer County | 2,601 | 501 | 3,102 | 83.8% |
| Love County | 2,538 | 483 | 3,021 | 84.0% |
| Blaine County | 2,476 | 493 | 2,969 | 83.4% |
| Woods County | 2,458 | 478 | 2,936 | 83.7% |
| Major County | 2,393 | 356 | 2,749 | 87.0% |
| Kiowa County | 2,087 | 441 | 2,528 | 82.6% |
| Tillman County | 1,598 | 334 | 1,932 | 82.7% |
| Coal County | 1,639 | 287 | 1,926 | 85.1% |
| Cotton County | 1,610 | 302 | 1,912 | 84.2% |
| Alfalfa County | 1,555 | 247 | 1,802 | 86.3% |
| Dewey County | 1,529 | 227 | 1,756 | 87.1% |
| Jefferson County | 1,457 | 254 | 1,711 | 85.2% |
| Beaver County | 1,488 | 199 | 1,687 | 88.2% |
| Grant County | 1,385 | 245 | 1,630 | 85.0% |
| Ellis County | 1,260 | 200 | 1,460 | 86.3% |
| Greer County | 1,222 | 235 | 1,457 | 83.9% |
| Roger Mills County | 1,173 | 173 | 1,346 | 87.1% |
| Harper County | 1,005 | 154 | 1,159 | 86.7% |
| Cimarron County | 688 | 90 | 778 | 88.4% |
| Harmon County | 547 | 111 | 658 | 83.1% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
State Question 845 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Oklahoma's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: okpolicy.org, theballotbrief.com, oklahoma.gov. All measures.