2026 ballot measure forecast
Ohio Issue 3
Put photo voter ID in Ohio Constitution
Requires an approved government-issued photo ID to vote in person, with a religious-objection alternative; absentee voters also need photo ID unless law allows signature plus another identifier. The forecast has Yes at 67.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.8%80% range 62 to 73
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
65.0%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.3% Yes
- Polls
- 65.0% Yes
- Forecast
- 67.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. SJR 10 (2026); Ohio's only statewide issue this year.
The campaign
Yes: GOP legislators, Honest Elections Project Action. No: Ohio Citizen Action and voting rights groups. No money totals found.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,598,281 net votes from 88 countiesStatewide Yes +35.7, a 1,598,281 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
4,478,679 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3,038,480 | 67.8% |
| No | 1,440,199 | 32.2% |
| Total | 4,478,679 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin County | 269,370 | 204,567 | 473,937 | 56.8% |
| Cuyahoga County | 260,528 | 205,880 | 466,408 | 55.9% |
| Hamilton County | 198,096 | 126,603 | 324,699 | 61.0% |
| Summit County | 135,480 | 78,576 | 214,056 | 63.3% |
| Montgomery County | 130,326 | 69,845 | 200,171 | 65.1% |
| Lucas County | 91,899 | 57,062 | 148,961 | 61.7% |
| Stark County | 101,474 | 41,281 | 142,755 | 71.1% |
| Butler County | 101,146 | 38,910 | 140,056 | 72.2% |
| Lorain County | 81,269 | 40,405 | 121,674 | 66.8% |
| Warren County | 77,616 | 27,844 | 105,460 | 73.6% |
| Delaware County | 68,310 | 33,602 | 101,912 | 67.0% |
| Lake County | 68,125 | 30,477 | 98,602 | 69.1% |
| Mahoning County | 60,818 | 28,911 | 89,729 | 67.8% |
| Clermont County | 63,794 | 21,595 | 85,389 | 74.7% |
| Medina County | 58,249 | 22,841 | 81,090 | 71.8% |
| Trumbull County | 53,215 | 23,093 | 76,308 | 69.7% |
| Licking County | 52,200 | 19,114 | 71,314 | 73.2% |
| Greene County | 49,346 | 20,608 | 69,954 | 70.5% |
| Portage County | 44,886 | 19,786 | 64,672 | 69.4% |
| Fairfield County | 45,689 | 18,090 | 63,779 | 71.6% |
| Wood County | 35,209 | 16,582 | 51,791 | 68.0% |
| Clark County | 35,163 | 12,957 | 48,120 | 73.1% |
| Richland County | 34,749 | 10,713 | 45,462 | 76.4% |
| Miami County | 34,323 | 10,140 | 44,463 | 77.2% |
| Geauga County | 30,973 | 12,254 | 43,227 | 71.7% |
| Wayne County | 31,135 | 10,033 | 41,168 | 75.6% |
| Columbiana County | 29,214 | 8,132 | 37,346 | 78.2% |
| Allen County | 27,379 | 8,217 | 35,596 | 76.9% |
| Ashtabula County | 24,356 | 9,115 | 33,471 | 72.8% |
| Tuscarawas County | 25,109 | 7,635 | 32,744 | 76.7% |
| Erie County | 21,089 | 9,457 | 30,546 | 69.0% |
| Muskingum County | 22,932 | 6,906 | 29,838 | 76.9% |
| Hancock County | 21,840 | 7,113 | 28,953 | 75.4% |
| Union County | 19,987 | 7,353 | 27,340 | 73.1% |
| Ross County | 19,128 | 6,158 | 25,286 | 75.6% |
| Knox County | 18,911 | 5,606 | 24,517 | 77.1% |
| Jefferson County | 18,704 | 5,621 | 24,325 | 76.9% |
| Belmont County | 18,857 | 5,398 | 24,255 | 77.7% |
| Scioto County | 18,597 | 5,270 | 23,867 | 77.9% |
| Washington County | 18,317 | 5,531 | 23,848 | 76.8% |
| Sandusky County | 16,604 | 6,011 | 22,615 | 73.4% |
| Pickaway County | 17,079 | 4,784 | 21,863 | 78.1% |
| Athens County | 13,283 | 8,066 | 21,349 | 62.2% |
| Marion County | 16,217 | 5,070 | 21,287 | 76.2% |
| Darke County | 16,991 | 3,510 | 20,501 | 82.9% |
| Huron County | 15,548 | 4,671 | 20,219 | 76.9% |
| Ashland County | 15,653 | 4,284 | 19,937 | 78.5% |
| Lawrence County | 15,470 | 4,204 | 19,674 | 78.6% |
| Seneca County | 14,670 | 4,844 | 19,514 | 75.2% |
| Auglaize County | 16,045 | 3,368 | 19,413 | 82.7% |
| Shelby County | 15,813 | 3,301 | 19,114 | 82.7% |
| Ottawa County | 13,382 | 5,228 | 18,610 | 71.9% |
| Mercer County | 15,058 | 3,019 | 18,077 | 83.3% |
| Logan County | 14,098 | 3,474 | 17,572 | 80.2% |
| Fulton County | 12,926 | 3,981 | 16,907 | 76.5% |
| Preble County | 13,318 | 3,113 | 16,431 | 81.1% |
| Brown County | 12,930 | 2,896 | 15,826 | 81.7% |
| Madison County | 12,099 | 3,651 | 15,750 | 76.8% |
| Crawford County | 12,333 | 3,217 | 15,550 | 79.3% |
| Clinton County | 12,300 | 3,118 | 15,418 | 79.8% |
| Putnam County | 12,845 | 2,452 | 15,297 | 84.0% |
| Champaign County | 12,041 | 3,253 | 15,294 | 78.7% |
| Highland County | 12,182 | 2,630 | 14,812 | 82.2% |
| Defiance County | 10,905 | 3,483 | 14,388 | 75.8% |
| Morrow County | 11,305 | 2,810 | 14,115 | 80.1% |
| Williams County | 10,720 | 3,016 | 13,736 | 78.0% |
| Guernsey County | 10,489 | 2,779 | 13,268 | 79.1% |
| Perry County | 10,194 | 2,590 | 12,784 | 79.7% |
| Coshocton County | 9,885 | 2,610 | 12,495 | 79.1% |
| Henry County | 8,515 | 2,455 | 10,970 | 77.6% |
| Van Wert County | 8,872 | 2,098 | 10,970 | 80.9% |
| Carroll County | 8,432 | 2,133 | 10,565 | 79.8% |
| Jackson County | 8,462 | 2,021 | 10,483 | 80.7% |
| Holmes County | 8,571 | 1,624 | 10,195 | 84.1% |
| Hocking County | 7,815 | 2,340 | 10,155 | 77.0% |
| Hardin County | 8,007 | 2,025 | 10,032 | 79.8% |
| Gallia County | 8,127 | 1,891 | 10,018 | 81.1% |
| Adams County | 7,882 | 1,620 | 9,502 | 83.0% |
| Fayette County | 7,563 | 1,900 | 9,463 | 79.9% |
| Pike County | 7,124 | 1,838 | 8,962 | 79.5% |
| Wyandot County | 6,733 | 1,807 | 8,540 | 78.8% |
| Meigs County | 6,432 | 1,566 | 7,998 | 80.4% |
| Paulding County | 5,574 | 1,372 | 6,946 | 80.2% |
| Harrison County | 4,332 | 1,085 | 5,417 | 80.0% |
| Morgan County | 4,091 | 1,062 | 5,153 | 79.4% |
| Monroe County | 4,166 | 961 | 5,127 | 81.3% |
| Noble County | 4,059 | 852 | 4,911 | 82.7% |
| Vinton County | 3,532 | 835 | 4,367 | 80.9% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University Political Research Center / USA TODAY Network Ohio | 500 LV | 2026-09-27 | 61 | 31.2 | 7.8 | 63.6% |
| YouGov | 1,000 LV | 2026-09-10 | 64 | 29 | 7 | 66.3% |
| Not named · for the Yes side | 800 LV | 2026-06-02 | 70 |
How this is built
Issue 3 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Ohio's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: ohiocapitaljournal.com, cleveland19.com, ohiosos.gov, ohiocitizen.org. All measures.