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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Nevada Question 7

Photo voter ID requirement

Second vote to require photo ID to vote in person and an ID number on mail ballots, effective for 2028 elections. The forecast has Yes at 67.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentVoter IDUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.8%
80% range 61 to 74
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
69.7%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
63.9% Yes
Polls
69.7% Yes
Forecast
67.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority; this is the required second approval of an initiated constitutional amendment first passed in 2024. If it fails, the amendment does not take effect. Passed with 73 percent in 2024.
The campaign

Backed by Dave Gibbs with support from Gov. Joe Lombardo; critics say unnecessary. No money figures found.

Also on the Nevada ballot

Question 6
Constitutional right to abortion until viability
>99%

Question 7 by county

Churchill CountyClark CountyDouglas CountyElko CountyEsmeralda CountyEureka CountyHumboldt CountyLander CountyLincoln CountyLyon CountyMineral CountyNye CountyPershing CountyStorey CountyWashoe CountyWhite Pine CountyCarson CityClarkWashoeDouglasLyonCarsonNyeElkoChurchillHumboldtWhite PineStoreyLander
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Clark County: Yes +259,894Washoe County: Yes +69,759Lyon County: Yes +14,805Douglas County: Yes +14,473Nye County: Yes +12,317Elko County: Yes +11,375Carson City: Yes +9,968Churchill County: Yes +6,434Humboldt County: Yes +4,065White Pine County: Yes +2,281Lincoln County: Yes +1,544Lander County: Yes +1,499Storey County: Yes +1,292Pershing County: Yes +1,258Mineral County: Yes +994Eureka County: Yes +599Esmeralda County: Yes +281
Yes +412,838 net votes from 17 countiesStatewide Yes +35.6, a 412,838 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,158,862 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes785,85067.8%
No373,01232.2%
Total1,158,862100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Clark County529,150269,256798,40666.3%
Washoe County139,20769,448208,65566.7%
Douglas County21,4096,93628,34575.5%
Lyon County20,3825,57725,95978.5%
Carson City17,4457,47724,92270.0%
Nye County17,1994,88222,08177.9%
Elko County14,6413,26617,90781.8%
Churchill County8,5592,12510,68480.1%
Humboldt County5,2721,2076,47981.4%
White Pine County2,9276463,57381.9%
Storey County1,8435512,39477.0%
Lander County1,8723732,24583.4%
Lincoln County1,8322882,12086.4%
Pershing County1,6343762,01081.3%
Mineral County1,4434491,89276.3%
Eureka County6919278388.3%
Esmeralda County3446340784.5%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Noble Predictive Insights708 LV2026-09-26672569.7%
How this is built
Question 7 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nevada's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news3lv.com, ktnv.com. All measures.