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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

New Mexico Constitutional Amendment 4

Tie legislator pay to median income

Gives legislators a salary tied to state median household income, with delayed implementation. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 56 to 79
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by Legislature; no campaign details found.

Also on the New Mexico ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1
End pocket veto, require veto explanations
97%
Constitutional Amendment 2
Allow school elections with partisan elections
84%
Constitutional Amendment 3
Nominating committee for university regents
94%
Bond Question 1
Senior citizen facilities bond
95%
Bond Question 2
Library acquisitions bond
94%
Bond Question 3
Higher education and tribal schools bond
93%

Constitutional Amendment 4 by county

Bernalillo CountyCatron CountyChaves CountyCibola CountyColfax CountyCurry CountyDe Baca CountyDoña Ana CountyEddy CountyGrant CountyGuadalupe CountyHarding CountyHidalgo CountyLea CountyLincoln CountyLos Alamos CountyLuna CountyMcKinley CountyMora CountyOtero CountyQuay CountyRio Arriba CountyRoosevelt CountySandoval CountySan Juan CountySan Miguel CountySanta Fe CountySierra CountySocorro CountyTaos CountyTorrance CountyUnion CountyValencia CountyBernalilloSanta FeDoña AnaSandovalSan JuanValenciaMcKinleyOteroEddyChavesLeaTaos
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Bernalillo County: Yes +99,107Santa Fe County: Yes +27,225Doña Ana County: Yes +26,339Sandoval County: Yes +24,331San Juan County: Yes +16,264Valencia County: Yes +10,365McKinley County: Yes +8,214Otero County: Yes +7,773Eddy County: Yes +7,199Chaves County: Yes +7,057Lea County: Yes +6,543Taos County: Yes +5,505Rio Arriba County: Yes +5,233Curry County: Yes +4,811Grant County: Yes +4,548San Miguel County: Yes +3,842Los Alamos County: Yes +3,830Lincoln County: Yes +3,255Cibola County: Yes +2,980Luna County: Yes +2,563Socorro County: Yes +2,324Torrance County: Yes +2,221Roosevelt County: Yes +2,083Colfax County: Yes +1,888Sierra County: Yes +1,869Quay County: Yes +1,194Mora County: Yes +843Catron County: Yes +753Guadalupe County: Yes +628Hidalgo County: Yes +597Union County: Yes +553De Baca County: Yes +269Harding County: Yes +137
Yes +292,343 net votes from 33 countiesStatewide Yes +38.0, a 292,343 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

769,437 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes530,89069.0%
No238,54731.0%
Total769,437100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Bernalillo County179,97580,868260,84369.0%
Santa Fe County49,44022,21571,65569.0%
Doña Ana County47,83121,49269,32369.0%
Sandoval County44,18419,85364,03769.0%
San Juan County29,53413,27042,80469.0%
Valencia County18,8228,45727,27969.0%
McKinley County14,9166,70221,61869.0%
Otero County14,1166,34320,45969.0%
Eddy County13,0745,87518,94969.0%
Chaves County12,8165,75918,57569.0%
Lea County11,8815,33817,21969.0%
Taos County9,9974,49214,48969.0%
Rio Arriba County9,5034,27013,77369.0%
Curry County8,7373,92612,66369.0%
Grant County8,2603,71211,97269.0%
San Miguel County6,9773,13510,11269.0%
Los Alamos County6,9553,12510,08069.0%
Lincoln County5,9102,6558,56569.0%
Cibola County5,4112,4317,84269.0%
Luna County4,6552,0926,74769.0%
Socorro County4,2211,8976,11869.0%
Torrance County4,0341,8135,84769.0%
Roosevelt County3,7831,7005,48369.0%
Colfax County3,4281,5404,96869.0%
Sierra County3,3951,5264,92169.0%
Quay County2,1699753,14469.0%
Mora County1,5316882,21969.0%
Catron County1,3686151,98369.0%
Guadalupe County1,1415131,65469.0%
Hidalgo County1,0854881,57369.0%
Union County1,0044511,45569.0%
De Baca County48821970769.0%
Harding County24911236169.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 4 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Mexico's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.nm.gov, sourcenm.com. All measures.