2026 ballot measure forecast
New Hampshire Question 1
Eliminate elected register of probate office
Removes the register of probate from the constitution's list of elected county officers (CACR 13). The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 66.7 percent it needs, a 36% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
36%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.4%80% range 50 to 75
Needs
66.7%67 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 66.7
2035506580- History and structure
- 63.4% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 63.4% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Two thirds of those voting on the question. A similar 2022 amendment got 62.9 percent and failed.
The campaign
Passed House 325-15 and Senate 23-1; no organized campaign.
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +173,797 net votes from 10 countiesStatewide Yes +26.8, a 173,797 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
647,837 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 410,817 | 63.4% |
| No | 237,020 | 36.6% |
| Total | 647,837 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | 116,152 | 67,014 | 183,166 | 63.4% |
| Rockingham County | 100,408 | 57,930 | 158,338 | 63.4% |
| Merrimack County | 46,460 | 26,805 | 73,265 | 63.4% |
| Strafford County | 38,034 | 21,944 | 59,978 | 63.4% |
| Grafton County | 28,251 | 16,299 | 44,550 | 63.4% |
| Cheshire County | 22,548 | 13,009 | 35,557 | 63.4% |
| Belknap County | 20,202 | 11,656 | 31,858 | 63.4% |
| Carroll County | 17,543 | 10,121 | 27,664 | 63.4% |
| Sullivan County | 12,611 | 7,276 | 19,887 | 63.4% |
| Coos County | 8,608 | 4,966 | 13,574 | 63.4% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 66.7 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Question 1 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with New Hampshire's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, theballotbrief.com. All measures.