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2026 ballot measure forecast

North Carolina Income Tax Cap Amendment

Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%

Lowers the constitutional cap on the state income tax rate from 7% to 3.5%. The forecast has Yes at 67.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureIncome taxUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
67.8%
80% range 59 to 75
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
71.6%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
62.5% Yes
Polls
71.6% Yes
Forecast
67.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Backed by Republican legislators; NC groups launched a campaign to defeat the two tax amendments; no money reported.

Also on the North Carolina ballot

Photo ID Amendment
Photo ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Property Tax Limit Amendment
Require limits on local property tax increases
>99%

Income Tax Cap Amendment by county

Alamance CountyAlexander CountyAlleghany CountyAnson CountyAshe CountyAvery CountyBeaufort CountyBertie CountyBladen CountyBrunswick CountyBuncombe CountyBurke CountyCabarrus CountyCaldwell CountyCamden CountyCarteret CountyCaswell CountyCatawba CountyChatham CountyCherokee CountyChowan CountyClay CountyCleveland CountyColumbus CountyCraven CountyCumberland CountyCurrituck CountyDare CountyDavidson CountyDavie CountyDuplin CountyDurham CountyEdgecombe CountyForsyth CountyFranklin CountyGaston CountyGates CountyGraham CountyGranville CountyGreene CountyGuilford CountyHalifax CountyHarnett CountyHaywood CountyHenderson CountyHertford CountyHoke CountyHyde CountyIredell CountyJackson CountyJohnston CountyJones CountyLee CountyLenoir CountyLincoln CountyMcDowell CountyMacon CountyMadison CountyMartin CountyMecklenburg CountyMitchell CountyMontgomery CountyMoore CountyNash CountyNew Hanover CountyNorthampton CountyOnslow CountyOrange CountyPamlico CountyPasquotank CountyPender CountyPerquimans CountyPerson CountyPitt CountyPolk CountyRandolph CountyRichmond CountyRobeson CountyRockingham CountyRowan CountyRutherford CountySampson CountyScotland CountyStanly CountyStokes CountySurry CountySwain CountyTransylvania CountyTyrrell CountyUnion CountyVance CountyWake CountyWarren CountyWashington CountyWatauga CountyWayne CountyWilkes CountyWilson CountyYadkin CountyYancey CountyWakeMecklenburgGuilfordDurhamBuncombeNew HanoverCumberlandUnionJohnstonCabarrusIredellDavidson
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Wake County: Yes +119,665Mecklenburg County: Yes +87,067Guilford County: Yes +54,673Forsyth County: Yes +44,692Union County: Yes +43,684Gaston County: Yes +37,431Johnston County: Yes +37,260Iredell County: Yes +36,731New Hanover County: Yes +35,927Davidson County: Yes +35,123Brunswick County: Yes +34,857Cabarrus County: Yes +32,279Buncombe County: Yes +31,007Randolph County: Yes +30,987Catawba County: Yes +30,543Cumberland County: Yes +30,353Onslow County: Yes +27,973Rowan County: Yes +26,288Alamance County: Yes +25,213Henderson County: Yes +21,683Moore County: Yes +21,232Pitt County: Yes +20,779Lincoln County: Yes +20,730Harnett County: Yes +19,611Cleveland County: Yes +17,829Carteret County: Yes +17,621Craven County: Yes +17,570Rockingham County: Yes +17,425Caldwell County: Yes +17,117Burke County: Yes +16,876Wayne County: Yes +16,570Wilkes County: Yes +15,580Surry County: Yes +15,145Robeson County: Yes +14,694Stanly County: Yes +14,228Nash County: Yes +13,869Rutherford County: Yes +13,626Pender County: Yes +12,858Haywood County: Yes +12,595Franklin County: Yes +12,134Chatham County: Yes +11,943Stokes County: Yes +11,469Davie County: Yes +10,256Wilson County: Yes +10,121Columbus County: Yes +9,478Beaufort County: Yes +9,316McDowell County: Yes +9,312Sampson County: Yes +9,310Granville County: Yes +9,234Alexander County: Yes +9,172Lee County: Yes +8,985Yadkin County: Yes +8,970Watauga County: Yes +8,224Macon County: Yes +8,220Dare County: Yes +7,855Orange County: Yes +7,721Duplin County: Yes +7,655Lenoir County: Yes +7,627Cherokee County: Yes +7,579Person County: Yes +7,176Currituck County: Yes +6,812Transylvania County: Yes +6,546Ashe County: Yes +6,424Jackson County: Yes +6,420Richmond County: Yes +6,113Pasquotank County: Yes +5,671Bladen County: Yes +5,340Hoke County: Yes +5,202Durham County: Yes +4,946Halifax County: Yes +4,897Montgomery County: Yes +4,730Madison County: Yes +4,576Edgecombe County: Yes +4,535Polk County: Yes +4,429Vance County: Yes +4,332Yancey County: Yes +4,270Scotland County: Yes +4,084Avery County: Yes +4,046Caswell County: Yes +3,916Mitchell County: Yes +3,863Martin County: Yes +3,536Clay County: Yes +3,153Pamlico County: Yes +2,932Perquimans County: Yes +2,889Anson County: Yes +2,851Alleghany County: Yes +2,809Greene County: Yes +2,726Chowan County: Yes +2,522Camden County: Yes +2,490Swain County: Yes +2,290Graham County: Yes +2,208Warren County: Yes +2,090Northampton County: Yes +2,075Bertie County: Yes +1,990Gates County: Yes +1,906Jones County: Yes +1,823Hertford County: Yes +1,737Washington County: Yes +1,432Hyde County: Yes +811Tyrrell County: Yes +577
Yes +1,477,147 net votes from 100 countiesStatewide Yes +35.5, a 1,477,147 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

4,159,487 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes2,818,31767.8%
No1,341,17032.2%
Total4,159,487100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Wake County305,955186,290492,24562.2%
Mecklenburg County252,667165,600418,26760.4%
Guilford County132,35477,681210,03563.0%
Forsyth County97,17852,486149,66464.9%
Durham County74,07169,125143,19651.7%
Buncombe County78,29247,285125,57762.3%
New Hanover County69,35833,431102,78967.5%
Cumberland County66,26335,910102,17364.9%
Union County70,33026,64696,97672.5%
Johnston County61,36124,10185,46271.8%
Cabarrus County58,33026,05184,38169.1%
Gaston County60,36622,93583,30172.5%
Brunswick County56,28221,42577,70772.4%
Iredell County56,71119,98076,69173.9%
Orange County39,12731,40670,53355.5%
Alamance County45,41820,20565,62369.2%
Davidson County50,23815,11565,35376.9%
Pitt County42,06721,28863,35566.4%
Catawba County45,80815,26561,07375.0%
Onslow County42,40414,43156,83574.6%
Rowan County39,86813,58053,44874.6%
Randolph County42,17811,19153,36979.0%
Henderson County37,34515,66253,00770.5%
Moore County33,36112,12945,49073.3%
Harnett County31,60211,99143,59372.5%
Craven County29,09311,52340,61671.6%
Wayne County28,20011,63039,83070.8%
Chatham County25,81113,86839,67965.0%
Lincoln County29,8779,14739,02476.6%
Nash County26,24912,38038,62968.0%
Cleveland County27,1859,35636,54174.4%
Rockingham County26,4329,00735,43974.6%
Carteret County25,7328,11133,84376.0%
Burke County24,8888,01232,90075.6%
Robeson County23,3408,64631,98673.0%
Caldwell County23,8356,71830,55378.0%
Franklin County21,0418,90729,94870.3%
Wilson County19,5019,38028,88167.5%
Haywood County20,2937,69827,99172.5%
Surry County21,0185,87326,89178.2%
Pender County19,5996,74126,34074.4%
Wilkes County20,9605,38026,34079.6%
Stanly County19,9865,75825,74477.6%
Rutherford County19,4345,80825,24277.0%
Watauga County16,6538,42925,08266.4%
Granville County16,4867,25223,73869.4%
Lee County15,1846,19921,38371.0%
Lenoir County13,8836,25620,13968.9%
Sampson County14,6135,30319,91673.4%
Beaufort County14,5125,19619,70873.6%
Columbus County14,5815,10319,68474.1%
Stokes County15,4293,96019,38979.6%
Davie County14,7084,45219,16076.8%
Dare County13,1615,30618,46771.3%
Edgecombe County11,0876,55217,63962.9%
Halifax County11,2206,32317,54364.0%
McDowell County13,1883,87617,06477.3%
Jackson County11,4605,04016,50069.5%
Duplin County12,0724,41716,48973.2%
Macon County12,3264,10616,43275.0%
Transylvania County11,4584,91216,37070.0%
Person County11,6654,48916,15472.2%
Hoke County10,5285,32615,85466.4%
Alexander County12,3223,15015,47279.6%
Pasquotank County10,4734,80215,27568.6%
Yadkin County11,8992,92914,82880.2%
Vance County9,4465,11414,56064.9%
Richmond County10,1144,00114,11571.7%
Cherokee County10,2962,71713,01379.1%
Currituck County9,7042,89212,59677.0%
Bladen County8,8623,52212,38471.6%
Ashe County9,3162,89212,20876.3%
Scotland County7,4263,34210,76869.0%
Madison County7,4432,86710,31072.2%
Polk County7,1382,7099,84772.5%
Montgomery County7,1022,3729,47475.0%
Martin County6,2732,7379,01069.6%
Yancey County6,5262,2568,78274.3%
Caswell County6,3352,4198,75472.4%
Anson County5,3632,5127,87568.1%
Warren County4,8742,7847,65863.6%
Hertford County4,5042,7677,27161.9%
Avery County5,6401,5947,23478.0%
Northampton County4,5802,5057,08564.6%
Bertie County4,4532,4636,91664.4%
Mitchell County5,2941,4316,72578.7%
Greene County4,5911,8656,45671.1%
Pamlico County4,5421,6106,15273.8%
Chowan County4,1321,6105,74272.0%
Clay County4,4461,2935,73977.5%
Perquimans County4,2971,4085,70575.3%
Swain County3,7201,4305,15072.2%
Alleghany County3,9241,1155,03977.9%
Camden County3,4981,0084,50677.6%
Washington County2,9061,4744,38066.3%
Gates County3,1371,2314,36871.8%
Jones County2,9291,1064,03572.6%
Graham County2,9076993,60680.6%
Hyde County1,3325211,85371.9%
Tyrrell County9513741,32571.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Elon University Poll / YouGov LV2026-08-3167181671.6%
YouGov1,000 A67
How this is built
Income Tax Cap Amendment is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com, theballotbrief.com, ncnewsline.com, elon.edu. All measures.