2026 ballot measure forecast
Michigan Proposal 2
Ban political donations from utilities and big contractors
Bars regulated gas and electric utilities and companies with over $250,000 in state contracts, plus people tied to them, from making political contributions, and expands disclosure for candidate ads. The forecast has Yes at 71.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
71.1%80% range 64 to 78
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
75.5%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 64.6% Yes
- Polls
- 75.5% Yes
- Forecast
- 71.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. Indirect initiated statute; Legislature did not act by Sept. 5, so it went to the ballot; survived a Michigan Supreme Court challenge.
The campaign
Yes: Michiganders for Money Out of Politics, $7.4M raised incl. $5.4M from All Hands on Deck; backed by all four Democratic statewide nominees. No: Protect MI Free Speech, about $579K from DTE and CMS affiliates and BCBS of Michigan (late July reports).
Also on the Michigan ballot
Proposal 1
Call a state constitutional convention
81%
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Yes +1,964,401 net votes from 83 countiesStatewide Yes +42.2, a 1,964,401 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties
Projected vote
4,658,225 votes on the question| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3,311,313 | 71.1% |
| No | 1,346,912 | 28.9% |
| Total | 4,658,225 | 100% |
| County | Yes | No | Total | Yes share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne County | 522,460 | 174,437 | 696,897 | 75.0% |
| Oakland County | 467,984 | 176,351 | 644,335 | 72.6% |
| Macomb County | 282,845 | 123,739 | 406,584 | 69.6% |
| Kent County | 223,203 | 86,864 | 310,067 | 72.0% |
| Washtenaw County | 147,080 | 44,050 | 191,130 | 77.0% |
| Genesee County | 130,230 | 51,049 | 181,279 | 71.8% |
| Ottawa County | 102,009 | 46,547 | 148,556 | 68.7% |
| Ingham County | 96,420 | 32,137 | 128,557 | 75.0% |
| Kalamazoo County | 90,799 | 32,729 | 123,528 | 73.5% |
| Livingston County | 72,515 | 33,831 | 106,346 | 68.2% |
| Saginaw County | 60,511 | 24,823 | 85,334 | 70.9% |
| Muskegon County | 55,260 | 22,466 | 77,726 | 71.1% |
| St. Clair County | 51,496 | 25,812 | 77,308 | 66.6% |
| Monroe County | 49,504 | 23,586 | 73,090 | 67.7% |
| Jackson County | 47,192 | 21,652 | 68,844 | 68.5% |
| Berrien County | 48,218 | 20,344 | 68,562 | 70.3% |
| Allegan County | 39,583 | 18,872 | 58,455 | 67.7% |
| Calhoun County | 38,599 | 16,916 | 55,515 | 69.5% |
| Eaton County | 38,488 | 15,777 | 54,265 | 70.9% |
| Grand Traverse County | 37,314 | 15,164 | 52,478 | 71.1% |
| Bay County | 34,936 | 15,374 | 50,310 | 69.4% |
| Lenawee County | 30,594 | 14,192 | 44,786 | 68.3% |
| Lapeer County | 29,372 | 15,263 | 44,635 | 65.8% |
| Midland County | 29,053 | 12,827 | 41,880 | 69.4% |
| Clinton County | 29,027 | 12,303 | 41,330 | 70.2% |
| Van Buren County | 23,158 | 10,218 | 33,376 | 69.4% |
| Marquette County | 24,004 | 9,150 | 33,154 | 72.4% |
| Shiawassee County | 22,616 | 10,495 | 33,111 | 68.3% |
| Barry County | 20,840 | 10,425 | 31,265 | 66.7% |
| Ionia County | 19,029 | 9,359 | 28,388 | 67.0% |
| Montcalm County | 18,604 | 9,617 | 28,221 | 65.9% |
| Isabella County | 18,794 | 7,912 | 26,706 | 70.4% |
| Tuscola County | 16,217 | 8,628 | 24,845 | 65.3% |
| St. Joseph County | 15,810 | 7,889 | 23,699 | 66.7% |
| Newaygo County | 15,383 | 8,179 | 23,562 | 65.3% |
| Cass County | 14,793 | 7,373 | 22,166 | 66.7% |
| Hillsdale County | 12,678 | 7,208 | 19,886 | 63.8% |
| Sanilac County | 12,326 | 6,799 | 19,125 | 64.4% |
| Emmet County | 13,353 | 5,736 | 19,089 | 70.0% |
| Mecosta County | 12,458 | 6,053 | 18,511 | 67.3% |
| Delta County | 12,003 | 5,843 | 17,846 | 67.3% |
| Branch County | 11,327 | 6,005 | 17,332 | 65.4% |
| Gratiot County | 11,153 | 5,463 | 16,616 | 67.1% |
| Houghton County | 11,401 | 5,092 | 16,493 | 69.1% |
| Wexford County | 10,447 | 5,236 | 15,683 | 66.6% |
| Chippewa County | 10,571 | 4,945 | 15,516 | 68.1% |
| Huron County | 10,077 | 5,266 | 15,343 | 65.7% |
| Mason County | 10,205 | 4,683 | 14,888 | 68.5% |
| Charlevoix County | 10,055 | 4,487 | 14,542 | 69.1% |
| Leelanau County | 10,366 | 3,976 | 14,342 | 72.3% |
| Alpena County | 9,556 | 4,596 | 14,152 | 67.5% |
| Clare County | 9,226 | 4,721 | 13,947 | 66.2% |
| Antrim County | 9,335 | 4,350 | 13,685 | 68.2% |
| Cheboygan County | 9,076 | 4,440 | 13,516 | 67.2% |
| Roscommon County | 8,736 | 4,325 | 13,061 | 66.9% |
| Iosco County | 8,647 | 4,216 | 12,863 | 67.2% |
| Otsego County | 8,532 | 4,296 | 12,828 | 66.5% |
| Manistee County | 8,861 | 3,930 | 12,791 | 69.3% |
| Gladwin County | 8,164 | 4,270 | 12,434 | 65.7% |
| Dickinson County | 8,244 | 4,181 | 12,425 | 66.4% |
| Oceana County | 8,269 | 4,017 | 12,286 | 67.3% |
| Osceola County | 6,877 | 3,805 | 10,682 | 64.4% |
| Benzie County | 7,360 | 3,121 | 10,481 | 70.2% |
| Menominee County | 6,968 | 3,466 | 10,434 | 66.8% |
| Ogemaw County | 6,682 | 3,529 | 10,211 | 65.4% |
| Kalkaska County | 5,960 | 3,171 | 9,131 | 65.3% |
| Missaukee County | 4,697 | 2,781 | 7,478 | 62.8% |
| Arenac County | 4,837 | 2,528 | 7,365 | 65.7% |
| Presque Isle County | 4,881 | 2,354 | 7,235 | 67.5% |
| Gogebic County | 4,687 | 2,093 | 6,780 | 69.1% |
| Crawford County | 4,512 | 2,247 | 6,759 | 66.8% |
| Mackinac County | 4,438 | 2,083 | 6,521 | 68.1% |
| Alcona County | 3,916 | 2,062 | 5,978 | 65.5% |
| Iron County | 3,885 | 1,877 | 5,762 | 67.4% |
| Lake County | 3,750 | 1,848 | 5,598 | 67.0% |
| Montmorency County | 3,345 | 1,812 | 5,157 | 64.9% |
| Alger County | 3,018 | 1,371 | 4,389 | 68.8% |
| Oscoda County | 2,693 | 1,447 | 4,140 | 65.0% |
| Schoolcraft County | 2,666 | 1,312 | 3,978 | 67.0% |
| Baraga County | 2,420 | 1,174 | 3,594 | 67.3% |
| Ontonagon County | 2,156 | 1,049 | 3,205 | 67.3% |
| Luce County | 1,631 | 895 | 2,526 | 64.6% |
| Keweenaw County | 928 | 403 | 1,331 | 69.7% |
Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.
Polls of the measure
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 2026-09-03 | 71.5 | 16 | 13 | 75.5% |
| Not named · for the Yes side | 2026-05-31 |
How this is built
Proposal 2 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Michigan's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: michiganpublic.org, michiganadvance.com, planetdetroit.org, votersnotpoliticians.com. All measures.