2026 ballot measure forecast

Kansas Constitutional Amendment No. 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends the voter qualifications section of the Kansas Constitution to state that only U.S. citizens are eligible to vote in Kansas; citizenship is already required by state law. The forecast has Yes at 82.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 22, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

82.8%

80% range 74 to 89

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 82.8% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 82.8% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority. Referred by HCR 5004 (2025).

The campaign

Placed by GOP legislature; no organized campaigns or spending reported.

Constitutional Amendment No. 1 by county

No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size

Where the margin is won

Yes +706,106 net votes from 105 countiesStatewide Yes +65.6, a 706,106 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

1,076,874 votes on the question

Choice	Votes	Share
Yes	891,490	82.8%
No	185,384	17.2%
Total	1,076,874	100%

County	Yes	No	Total	Yes share
Johnson County	213,866	60,981	274,847	77.8%
Sedgwick County	141,544	29,321	170,865	82.8%
Shawnee County	53,664	13,652	67,316	79.7%
Douglas County	34,318	15,332	49,650	69.1%
Wyandotte County	29,909	10,678	40,587	73.7%
Leavenworth County	24,925	4,518	29,443	84.7%
Butler County	22,520	3,037	25,557	88.1%
Reno County	19,082	2,880	21,962	86.9%
Riley County	17,279	4,477	21,756	79.4%
Saline County	16,369	2,592	18,961	86.3%
Miami County	12,689	1,763	14,452	87.8%
Crawford County	11,297	1,974	13,271	85.1%
Harvey County	11,145	2,074	13,219	84.3%
McPherson County	10,284	1,391	11,675	88.1%
Cowley County	10,003	1,373	11,376	87.9%
Ellis County	9,979	1,233	11,212	89.0%
Pottawatomie County	9,617	1,155	10,772	89.3%
Lyon County	8,858	1,810	10,668	83.0%
Montgomery County	9,369	1,056	10,425	89.9%
Franklin County	8,860	1,217	10,077	87.9%
Barton County	7,893	795	8,688	90.8%
Finney County	7,370	1,110	8,480	86.9%
Sumner County	7,565	867	8,432	89.7%
Jefferson County	6,846	993	7,839	87.3%
Geary County	6,469	1,266	7,735	83.6%
Dickinson County	6,658	696	7,354	90.5%
Cherokee County	6,327	687	7,014	90.2%
Ford County	6,087	863	6,950	87.6%
Labette County	5,690	810	6,500	87.5%
Osage County	5,740	680	6,420	89.4%
Atchison County	5,122	737	5,859	87.4%
Neosho County	4,931	587	5,518	89.4%
Bourbon County	4,779	506	5,285	90.4%
Jackson County	4,606	607	5,213	88.4%
Marion County	4,385	511	4,896	89.6%
Nemaha County	4,280	339	4,619	92.7%
Allen County	3,970	489	4,459	89.0%
Marshall County	3,601	419	4,020	89.6%
Linn County	3,691	311	4,002	92.2%
Seward County	3,253	457	3,710	87.7%
Coffey County	3,217	331	3,548	90.7%
Brown County	3,105	371	3,476	89.3%
Clay County	3,060	313	3,373	90.7%
Cloud County	3,066	284	3,350	91.5%
Pratt County	3,001	336	3,337	89.9%
Rice County	2,976	299	3,275	90.9%
Wabaunsee County	2,882	339	3,221	89.5%
Wilson County	2,938	260	3,198	91.9%
Kingman County	2,904	271	3,175	91.5%
Anderson County	2,785	262	3,047	91.4%
Thomas County	2,805	228	3,033	92.5%
Doniphan County	2,644	228	2,872	92.1%
Russell County	2,532	229	2,761	91.7%
Mitchell County	2,323	192	2,515	92.4%
Ottawa County	2,282	182	2,464	92.6%
Greenwood County	2,196	201	2,397	91.6%
Ellsworth County	2,109	233	2,342	90.1%
Morris County	2,037	250	2,287	89.1%
Washington County	2,127	159	2,286	93.0%
Pawnee County	2,039	228	2,267	89.9%
Phillips County	2,110	135	2,245	94.0%
Sherman County	2,021	151	2,172	93.0%
Rooks County	1,985	140	2,125	93.4%
Harper County	1,917	163	2,080	92.2%
Republic County	1,855	151	2,006	92.5%
Norton County	1,805	139	1,944	92.8%
Gray County	1,699	127	1,826	93.0%
Scott County	1,706	106	1,812	94.2%
Grant County	1,655	145	1,800	91.9%
Barber County	1,679	115	1,794	93.6%
Smith County	1,553	118	1,671	92.9%
Stafford County	1,461	124	1,585	92.2%
Stevens County	1,432	88	1,520	94.2%
Osborne County	1,367	103	1,470	93.0%
Meade County	1,297	96	1,393	93.1%
Rush County	1,224	100	1,324	92.4%
Trego County	1,220	86	1,306	93.4%
Jewell County	1,209	73	1,282	94.3%
Chautauqua County	1,189	84	1,273	93.4%
Lincoln County	1,149	95	1,244	92.4%
Woodson County	1,137	104	1,241	91.6%
Decatur County	1,103	83	1,186	93.0%
Chase County	1,059	120	1,179	89.8%
Gove County	1,109	64	1,173	94.5%
Ness County	1,105	58	1,163	95.0%
Rawlins County	1,083	72	1,155	93.8%
Logan County	1,070	73	1,143	93.6%
Sheridan County	1,070	55	1,125	95.1%
Cheyenne County	1,022	76	1,098	93.1%
Elk County	1,017	74	1,091	93.2%
Kearny County	997	75	1,072	93.0%
Edwards County	987	82	1,069	92.3%
Graham County	976	80	1,056	92.4%
Haskell County	963	82	1,045	92.2%
Kiowa County	887	62	949	93.5%
Morton County	813	53	866	93.9%
Clark County	795	53	848	93.8%
Hodgeman County	741	53	794	93.3%
Comanche County	684	52	736	92.9%
Wichita County	678	44	722	93.9%
Lane County	636	44	680	93.5%
Wallace County	620	26	646	96.0%
Hamilton County	590	47	637	92.6%
Stanton County	508	44	552	92.0%
Greeley County	439	29	468	93.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Constitutional Amendment No. 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Kansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: stantoncountyks.com , kctv5.com , kcur.org , news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.