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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 ballot measure forecast

Hawaii Question 2

County tax increment bonds for infrastructure

Lets counties issue bonds for sewer, water and drainage in designated districts repaid from property tax revenue growth, outside debt limits. The forecast has Yes at 68.4 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 93% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureBonds and budgetsUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
93%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
68.4%
80% range 55 to 79
Needs
53.2%
a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580
History and structure
68.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
68.4% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Must win a majority of all ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as no.
The campaign

Referred by Legislature; supporters say it aids housing; no organized campaigns reported.

Also on the Hawaii ballot

Question 1
More Senate time on judicial appointments
84%

Question 2 by county

Hawaii CountyHonolulu CountyKauai CountyMaui CountyHonoluluHawaiiMauiKauai
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Honolulu County: Yes +105,010Hawaii County: Yes +25,269Maui County: Yes +19,381Kauai County: Yes +8,754
Yes +158,414 net votes from 4 countiesStatewide Yes +36.8, a 158,414 vote marginNo +0 net votes from 0 counties

Projected vote

430,340 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes294,37768.4%
No135,96331.6%
Total430,340100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Honolulu County196,33591,325287,66068.3%
Hawaii County45,94020,67166,61169.0%
Maui County35,59016,20951,79968.7%
Kauai County16,5127,75824,27068.0%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 53.2 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Question 2 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Hawaii's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: hawaiipublicradio.org. All measures.