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2026 ballot measure forecast

Alabama Statewide Amendment 4

Weekly national anthem in public schools

Requires local school boards to adopt policies for each public K to 12 school to play or perform the first stanza of the Star Spangled Banner at least once a week. The forecast has Yes at 66.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 96% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureEducationUpdated October 22, 2026
Chance to pass
96%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.4%
80% range 53 to 77
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
66.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
66.4% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Sponsored by Sen. Gerald Allen R; passed Senate 22 to 5 and House 75 to 27; no organized campaign reported.

Also on the Alabama ballot

Statewide Amendment 1
Lieutenant governor vacancies and legislative officer pay
97%
Statewide Amendment 2
Process for merging county school systems
84%
Statewide Amendment 3
Daily Pledge and student led prayer in schools
95%

Statewide Amendment 4 by county

Butler CountyCoffee CountyMorgan CountyBaldwin CountyLowndes CountyFayette CountyWinston CountyChilton CountyJefferson CountyClay CountyChambers CountySt. Clair CountyLauderdale CountyDeKalb CountyGreene CountyCherokee CountyColbert CountyMontgomery CountyEtowah CountyFranklin CountyElmore CountyPerry CountyCalhoun CountyDallas CountyConecuh CountyChoctaw CountySumter CountyRandolph CountyLimestone CountyMarshall CountyBullock CountyRussell CountyShelby CountyClarke CountyMarengo CountyHale CountyLamar CountyPickens CountyCoosa CountyWalker CountyWashington CountyCrenshaw CountyDale CountyLee CountyAutauga CountyBarbour CountyMobile CountyBibb CountyPike CountyGeneva CountyHouston CountyMarion CountyCleburne CountyMadison CountyWilcox CountyBlount CountyLawrence CountyTuscaloosa CountyMacon CountyTallapoosa CountyJackson CountyCovington CountyMonroe CountyTalladega CountyHenry CountyEscambia CountyCullman CountyJeffersonMadisonMobileBaldwinShelbyMontgomeryTuscaloosaLeeMorganLimestoneCalhounHouston
No +30Yes +30Click a county to zoom · arrow keys step through counties by size
Where the margin is won
Baldwin County: Yes +37,123Jefferson County: Yes +36,280Mobile County: Yes +33,769Madison County: Yes +32,808Shelby County: Yes +28,527Tuscaloosa County: Yes +17,904Cullman County: Yes +16,953Lee County: Yes +15,921Morgan County: Yes +15,444St. Clair County: Yes +14,430Marshall County: Yes +14,161Limestone County: Yes +13,582Etowah County: Yes +13,286Calhoun County: Yes +13,156Houston County: Yes +12,851Lauderdale County: Yes +12,367Elmore County: Yes +12,234Blount County: Yes +10,835Walker County: Yes +10,561DeKalb County: Yes +10,519Talladega County: Yes +8,210Jackson County: Yes +8,172Autauga County: Yes +7,759Colbert County: Yes +7,424Coffee County: Yes +7,213Chilton County: Yes +7,125Covington County: Yes +6,546Tallapoosa County: Yes +5,909Dale County: Yes +5,855Marion County: Yes +5,577Montgomery County: Yes +5,547Lawrence County: Yes +5,370Geneva County: Yes +5,021Cherokee County: Yes +4,777Winston County: Yes +4,677Franklin County: Yes +4,519Escambia County: Yes +4,291Randolph County: Yes +3,632Bibb County: Yes +3,173Cleburne County: Yes +3,168Fayette County: Yes +3,092Chambers County: Yes +3,073Pike County: Yes +2,996Russell County: Yes +2,955Henry County: Yes +2,886Washington County: Yes +2,656Lamar County: Yes +2,617Clarke County: Yes +2,484Clay County: Yes +2,393Monroe County: Yes +2,175Crenshaw County: Yes +2,069Pickens County: Yes +2,015Barbour County: Yes +1,958Butler County: Yes +1,894Marengo County: Yes +1,640Choctaw County: Yes +1,538Coosa County: Yes +1,492Conecuh County: Yes +1,189Hale County: Yes +988Dallas County: Yes +909Wilcox County: Yes +315Lowndes County: Yes +221Sumter County: Yes +139Perry County: Yes +86Bullock County: Yes +30Macon County: No +316Greene County: No +140
Yes +530,486 net votes from 65 countiesStatewide Yes +32.9, a 530,030 vote marginNo +456 net votes from 2 counties

Projected vote

1,612,948 votes on the question
ChoiceVotesShare
Yes1,071,48966.4%
No541,45933.6%
Total1,612,948100%
CountyYesNoTotalYes share
Jefferson County128,28592,005220,29058.2%
Madison County84,64751,839136,48662.0%
Mobile County79,67245,903125,57563.4%
Baldwin County60,31823,19583,51372.2%
Shelby County53,18124,65477,83568.3%
Montgomery County37,46231,91569,37754.0%
Tuscaloosa County40,45422,55063,00464.2%
Lee County33,35517,43450,78965.7%
Morgan County26,19710,75336,95070.9%
Limestone County24,68011,09835,77869.0%
Calhoun County23,76610,61034,37669.1%
Houston County22,6549,80332,45769.8%
Etowah County22,0208,73430,75471.6%
St. Clair County22,4217,99130,41273.7%
Lauderdale County21,1558,78829,94370.7%
Elmore County20,8498,61529,46470.8%
Cullman County23,1226,16929,29178.9%
Marshall County20,7506,58927,33975.9%
Talladega County16,3088,09824,40666.8%
Walker County15,4714,91020,38175.9%
Autauga County13,8396,08019,91969.5%
DeKalb County15,1504,63119,78176.6%
Colbert County13,2295,80519,03469.5%
Blount County14,7213,88618,60779.1%
Coffee County11,7514,53816,28972.1%
Jackson County12,0013,82915,83075.8%
Russell County8,8965,94114,83760.0%
Tallapoosa County10,2784,36914,64770.2%
Dale County9,9634,10814,07170.8%
Chilton County10,4183,29313,71176.0%
Covington County9,5523,00612,55876.1%
Dallas County6,7125,80312,51553.6%
Lawrence County8,4623,09211,55473.2%
Escambia County7,6603,36911,02969.5%
Chambers County6,7433,67010,41364.8%
Pike County6,4503,4549,90465.1%
Marion County7,5361,9599,49579.4%
Clarke County5,8263,3429,16863.5%
Geneva County7,0602,0399,09977.6%
Cherokee County6,7982,0218,81977.1%
Franklin County6,5392,0208,55976.4%
Winston County6,2171,5407,75780.1%
Randolph County5,6181,9867,60473.9%
Barbour County4,7132,7557,46863.1%
Marengo County4,5452,9057,45061.0%
Monroe County4,7822,6077,38964.7%
Henry County4,9732,0877,06070.4%
Pickens County4,4212,4066,82764.8%
Bibb County4,9221,7496,67173.8%
Macon County3,0973,4136,51047.6%
Butler County4,1842,2906,47464.6%
Washington County4,4181,7626,18071.5%
Fayette County4,5211,4295,95076.0%
Hale County3,2522,2645,51659.0%
Cleburne County4,2111,0435,25480.1%
Choctaw County3,3551,8175,17264.9%
Crenshaw County3,4621,3934,85571.3%
Lamar County3,7091,0924,80177.3%
Clay County3,5541,1614,71575.4%
Conecuh County2,8901,7014,59162.9%
Lowndes County2,2742,0534,32752.6%
Sumter County2,2252,0864,31151.6%
Wilcox County2,1861,8714,05753.9%
Coosa County2,7301,2383,96868.8%
Perry County1,7511,6653,41651.3%
Bullock County1,6141,5843,19850.5%
Greene County1,5141,6543,16847.8%

Projected 2026 votes: each county's expected turnout, less the roughly 6 percent of voters who skip a ballot question, times its forecast Yes share. The measure needs 50.0 percent Yes to pass.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Statewide Amendment 4 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alabama's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alabamareflector.com, theballotbrief.com, sos.alabama.gov. All measures.