SearchThe Weighting Room
12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

West Virginia Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the West Virginia Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations. All 34 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 34On the ballot 34West Virginia House of DelegatesAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
16 to 16
Median 16 · 18 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D0to R
After 2024: 1 D, 16 R
Environment
D +10.0
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

West Virginia Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats 74%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats 6%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats <1%District 11: Democrats <1%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats 91%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats 4%1234567891011121314151617
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 16 D to 18 R
District 13: Democrats win 91%District 13: Democrats win 91%District 5: Democrats win 74%District 5: Democrats win 74%District 8: Democrats win 6%District 8: Democrats win 6%District 17: Democrats win 4%District 17: Democrats win 4%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 10: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
18 for a majority141618

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
52 seatsMike Woelfel, Melissa Clark 2022DuRon Jackson vs Chris Miller · Glendon Watts (O)R +25.2D +3.874%15,87114,70331,039Lean D
132 seatsMike Oliverio, Barbara Evans Fleischauer 2022John Williams vs Mike OliverioR +5.8D +9.191%17,14414,29931,922Likely D
82 seatsMark Hunt, Richard Lindsay 2022Kim Hundley vs Lance V. Wheeler1 pollR +28.0R +10.26%13,88317,05031,404Likely R
172 seatsTom Takubo, Samuel "Sam" Wood 2022Wes Holden vs Tom TakuboR +21.8R +10.94%14,83518,46533,807Likely R

Projected West Virginia Senate vote

34 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats188,79732.3%
Republicans387,67166.3%
Independents and others8,1551.4%
Total584,626100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.