2026 state legislative forecast
Vermont House forecast
Democrats win control of the Vermont House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 150 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
106 to 115Median 111 ยท 76 for a majority
Favored to flip
19to D0to R
After 2024: 86 D, 53 R, 11 other
Environment
D +6.8Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Vermont House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 111 D to 36 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BENNINGTON 1 | Jonathan Cooper 2024 | Jonathan Cooper vs Charles Edward Jewett | R +12.1 | D +1.2 | 57% | 835 | 814 | 1,674 | Toss up |
| CALEDONIA 1 | Debra Lynn Powers 2024 | David Tucker vs Debra "Debbie" Powers | D +6.9 | D +2.6 | 65% | 1,745 | 1,655 | 3,453 | Lean D |
| FRANKLIN 42 seats | Matthew E Walker, Thomas "Tom" Oliver Jr 2024 | Tamar Bouchard, Carmela Ann Mayette vs Thomas "Tom" Oliver, Matthew E. Walker | R +9.8 | R +3.0 | 32% | 2,821 | 2,992 | 5,901 | Lean R |
| ORANGE 1 | Michael Tagliavia 2024 | Gregory Wilson vs Michael "Mike" Tagliavia | D +1.5 | D +4.2 | 73% | 1,751 | 1,611 | 3,414 | Lean D |
| WASHINGTON-ORANGE2 seats | Gina Galfetti, Francis "Topper" Mcfaun 2024 | Melissa Battah, Emily Wheeler-Reynolds vs Gina Galfetti, David Soucy | D +8.9 | R +4.3 | 26% | 2,998 | 3,265 | 6,358 | Lean R |
| RUTLAND-WINDSOR | Kevin C Winter 2024 | Phoebe Tucker vs Kevin C. Winter | D +10.9 | D +4.5 | 75% | 1,894 | 1,729 | 3,678 | Lean D |
| FRANKLIN 3 | Joe Luneau 2024 | Suzanne Kenyon vs Joseph "Joe" Luneau | R +14.9 | R +4.8 | 22% | 1,685 | 1,854 | 3,592 | Lean R |
| RUTLAND 6 | Mary E Howard 2024 | Chris Siliski vs Cindy Laskevich | R +4.0 | D +6.3 | 83% | 1,880 | 1,659 | 3,592 | Likely D |
| RUTLAND 9 | Tod Nielsen 2024 | Jeff Haylon vs Aida Nielsen | D +8.2 | D +6.5 | 83% | 1,615 | 1,417 | 3,078 | Likely D |
| ORANGE-CALEDONIA | Joe Parsons 2024 | Aiden Boyd Otterman vs Tom Otterman ยท Susan Culp (I) | R +0.9 | R +6.6 | 15% | 1,514 | 1,728 | 3,292 | Likely R |
| RUTLAND-BENNINGTON | Chris Pritchard 2024 | Jessica Van Oort vs Chris Pritchard | D +11.9 | D +6.7 | 85% | 1,566 | 1,370 | 2,981 | Likely D |
| CALEDONIA 32 seats | Martha "Marty" Feltus, Beth M Quimby 2024 | Bill Coleman, Dennis R. Labounty vs Erik R. Lavallee, Beth M. Quimby | R +2.4 | R +7.6 | 13% | 2,575 | 3,001 | 5,661 | Likely R |
| GRAND ISLE-CHITTENDEN2 seats | Michael R Morgan, Leland J Morgan 2024 | Sylvia Jensen, Dave Skinner vs Josie Henry, Michael R. Morgan | D +21.7 | D +8.8 | 91% | 3,501 | 2,933 | 6,532 | Likely D |
| CALEDONIA 2 | Michael "Mike" Southworth 2024 | Audrey Grant vs Michael Southworth | D +21.1 | D +8.9 | 91% | 1,605 | 1,342 | 2,993 | Likely D |
| WINDSOR 2 | Vl Coffin 2024 | Mark Yuengling vs VL Coffin | D +10.0 | D +9.1 | 92% | 1,966 | 1,637 | 3,658 | Likely D |
| RUTLAND 8 | Alicia Malay 2024 | Genevieve K. Duchesneau vs Alicia Malay | D +2.6 | D +9.4 | 92% | 1,909 | 1,581 | 3,543 | Likely D |
Projected Vermont House vote
150 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 218,112 | 59.4% |
| Republicans | 144,233 | 39.3% |
| Independents and others | 4,744 | 1.3% |
| Total | 367,088 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.