2026 state legislative forecast
Pennsylvania House forecast
Democrats win control of the Pennsylvania House in 95% of 2,000 simulations. All 203 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 7 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
95%D5%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
103 to 115Median 108 ยท 102 for a majority
Favored to flip
5to D1to R
After 2024: 101 D, 101 R, 1 other
Environment
D +8.2Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Pennsylvania House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 109 D to 94 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 143 | Shelby E Labs 2024 | Timothy L. Hayes vs Shelby Labs ยท Christopher D. Gambino (O)2 polls | R +5.6 | R +0.0 | 50% | 17,800 | 17,807 | 36,148 | Toss up |
| 88 | Sheryl M Delozier 2024 | Sara M. Agerton vs Jeff Clark | R +0.9 | R +0.5 | 48% | 15,576 | 15,726 | 31,779 | Toss up |
| 187 | Gary W Day 2024 | Rachel Cuevas vs Gary Day2 polls | R +9.5 | R +0.9 | 44% | 16,372 | 16,666 | 33,542 | Toss up |
| 18 | Kathleen C Tomlinson 2024 | Bryan F. Allen Jr. vs K.C. Tomlinson2 polls | R +3.3 | D +1.3 | 58% | 13,737 | 13,387 | 27,538 | Toss up |
| 142 | Joseph F Hogan 2024 | Kristin Egan vs Joe Hogan2 polls | R +3.4 | D +1.4 | 58% | 16,260 | 15,817 | 32,566 | Toss up |
| 131 | V Milou Mackenzie 2024 | Meriam H. Sabih vs Milou Mackenzie2 polls | R +10.3 | R +1.7 | 39% | 16,817 | 17,398 | 34,736 | Toss up |
| 41 | Brett R Miller 2024 | Bradford T. Chambers vs Brett Miller2 polls | R +5.0 | R +2.1 | 38% | 14,591 | 15,207 | 30,252 | Lean R |
| 28 | Jeremy K Shaffer 2024 | Jeremy Ferderber vs Jeremy Shaffer | R +7.6 | R +2.8 | 34% | 16,333 | 17,256 | 34,101 | Lean R |
| 44 | Valerie S Gaydos 2024 | Hadley B. Haas vs Valerie Gaydos | R +3.9 | D +3.2 | 67% | 16,473 | 15,445 | 32,404 | Lean D |
| 170 | Martina A White 2024 | Robert N. Gurtcheff II vs Martina White | R +14.7 | R +3.4 | 31% | 11,154 | 11,932 | 23,437 | Lean R |
| 13 | John Adda Lawrence 2024 | Madelyn G. Alvarino vs John Lawrence | R +4.8 | R +3.8 | 27% | 14,044 | 15,160 | 29,649 | Lean R |
| 72 | Frank Burns 2024 | Frank Burns vs Philip Rice | R +31.6 | R +4.7 | 26% | 12,793 | 14,057 | 27,259 | Lean R |
| 120 | Brenda M Pugh 2024 | Fern Leard vs Brenda Pugh | R +11.8 | R +6.3 | 18% | 13,150 | 14,904 | 28,481 | Likely R |
| 40 | Natalie Stuck 2024 | Jonathan C. Lloyd vs Natalie Mihalek | R +5.9 | R +6.7 | 15% | 16,691 | 19,084 | 36,320 | Likely R |
| 160 | Wendell Craig Williams 2024 | Elizabeth Moro vs Craig Williams | D +5.4 | D +6.7 | 84% | 18,537 | 16,199 | 35,265 | Likely D |
| 147 | Donna Marie Scheuren 2024 | Margaret Burke vs Donna Scheuren1 poll | R +9.8 | R +6.9 | 15% | 15,908 | 18,270 | 34,698 | Likely R |
| 137 | Joseph T Emrick 2024 | Jeffrey M. Warren vs Joe Emrick | R +1.0 | D +7.7 | 87% | 17,831 | 15,285 | 33,620 | Likely D |
| 145 | Craig T Staats 2024 | Les Mavus vs Craig Staats1 poll | R +15.7 | R +8.0 | 12% | 14,614 | 17,153 | 32,251 | Likely R |
| 172 | Sean Michael Dougherty 2024 | Sean Dougherty vs Wallace J. Quinlan | R +0.9 | D +8.8 | 91% | 11,847 | 9,933 | 22,112 | Likely D |
| 144 | Brian Munroe 2024 | Brian Munroe vs Michael J. Murphy1 poll | R +0.3 | D +9.5 | 92% | 18,138 | 14,978 | 33,620 | Likely D |
| 7 | Parke H Wentling 2024 | Chris Ford vs Parke Wentling | R +17.7 | R +9.7 | 7% | 12,631 | 15,329 | 28,386 | Likely R |
| 16 | Robert F Matzie 2024 | Robert Matzie vs John Costanza | R +7.5 | D +9.9 | 94% | 15,714 | 12,875 | 29,024 | Likely D |
| 178 | Kristin Marcell 2024 | Monica Weninger vs Kristin Marcell1 poll | R +13.0 | R +10.7 | 5% | 16,229 | 20,102 | 36,884 | Likely R |
| 39 | Andrew M Kuzma 2024 | Dylan Altemara vs Andrew Kuzma | R +19.2 | R +11.3 | 5% | 14,560 | 18,255 | 33,315 | Likely R |
| 106 | Thomas L Mehaffie 2024 | Anju Singh vs Tom Mehaffie | R +9.9 | R +11.3 | 4% | 13,839 | 17,354 | 31,668 | Likely R |
| 128 | Mark M Gillen 2024 | Andrew Wagner vs Mark M. Gillen | R +17.4 | R +11.7 | 5% | 13,522 | 17,119 | 31,108 | Likely R |
| 87 | Thomas H Kutz 2024 | Jessica Lynne St. Clair vs Thomas Kutz | R +11.5 | R +11.8 | 3% | 14,726 | 18,655 | 33,890 | Likely R |
| 46 | Jason A Ortitay 2024 | Michael Crossey vs Jason Ortitay | R +14.8 | R +11.9 | 3% | 14,733 | 18,713 | 33,954 | Likely R |
Projected Pennsylvania House vote
203 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 3,107,794 | 53.4% |
| Republicans | 2,637,248 | 45.4% |
| Independents and others | 70,249 | 1.2% |
| Total | 5,815,285 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.