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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Oregon Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Oregon Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. 15 of the 30 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 15 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 30On the ballot 15Oregon HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
19 to 22
Median 20 · 16 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 18 D, 12 R
Environment
D +11.1
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Oregon Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats >99%District 4: Democrats >99%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats 33%District 7: Democrats >99%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9, not up in 2026District 10: Democrats >99%District 11: Democrats 99%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats >99%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats 68%District 17: Democrats >99%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21, not up in 2026District 22, not up in 2026District 23, not up in 2026District 24: Democrats >99%District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats 30%District 27, not up in 2026District 28, not up in 2026District 29, not up in 2026District 30, not up in 202612345678910111213161920242627282930
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 20 D to 10 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 3: Democrats win >99%District 4: Democrats win >99%District 7: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 17: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win 99%District 16: Democrats win 68%District 6: Democrats win 33%District 26: Democrats win 30%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
16 for a majority162024

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
6Cedric R Hayden 2022Sierrah Williams vs Jack TibbettsR +8.9R +3.133%36,39938,70576,247Lean R
26Daniel G Bonham 2022Nicole Bassett vs Jeff HelfrichR +15.9R +3.430%59,72263,901125,506Lean R
16Suzanne Weber 2022Rachel Armitage vs Courtney Bangs · Melisa Finkle (I)R +4.6D +3.568%48,05044,81894,283Lean D

Projected Oregon Senate vote

15 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats803,26666.0%
Republicans397,41932.7%
Independents and others16,5001.4%
Total1,217,185100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.