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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Ohio House forecast

Republicans win control of the Ohio House in 98% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 99 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 99On the ballot 99Ohio SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
2%D98%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
39 to 47
Median 43 ยท 50 for a majority
Favored to flip
8to D0to R
After 2024: 34 D, 65 R
Environment
D +10.7
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Ohio House map

District 1: Democrats >99%District 2: Democrats >99%District 3: Democrats >99%District 4: Democrats >99%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats >99%District 7: Democrats >99%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats 96%District 11: Democrats >99%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats >99%District 14: Democrats >99%District 15: Democrats >99%District 16: Democrats >99%District 17: Democrats 65%District 18: Democrats >99%District 19: Democrats >99%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats 98%District 24: Democrats >99%District 25: Democrats >99%District 26: Democrats >99%District 27: Democrats >99%District 28: Democrats >99%District 29: Democrats 39%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats 87%District 32: Democrats 30%District 33: Democrats >99%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats >99%District 37: Democrats 62%District 38: Democrats >99%District 39: Democrats 45%District 40: Democrats <1%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats >99%District 44: Democrats 37%District 45: Democrats 4%District 46: Democrats <1%District 47: Democrats 2%District 48: Democrats <1%District 49: Democrats 86%District 50: Democrats <1%District 51: Democrats <1%District 52: Democrats 57%District 53: Democrats >99%District 54: Democrats <1%District 55: Democrats <1%District 56: Democrats 4%District 57: Democrats 3%District 58: Democrats >99%District 59: Democrats 9%District 60: Democrats 83%District 61: Democrats 5%District 62: Democrats <1%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats <1%District 65: Democrats <1%District 66: Democrats <1%District 67: Democrats <1%District 68: Democrats 11%District 69: Democrats <1%District 70: Democrats 7%District 71: Democrats <1%District 72: Democrats 16%District 73: Democrats 9%District 74: Democrats <1%District 75: Democrats 28%District 76: Democrats <1%District 77: Democrats <1%District 78: Democrats <1%District 79: Democrats <1%District 80: Democrats <1%District 81: Democrats <1%District 82: Democrats <1%District 83: Democrats <1%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats <1%District 86: Democrats <1%District 87: Democrats <1%District 88: Democrats <1%District 89: Democrats <1%District 90: Democrats <1%District 91: Democrats <1%District 92: Democrats <1%District 93: Democrats <1%District 94: Democrats <1%District 95: Democrats <1%District 96: Democrats <1%District 97: Democrats <1%District 98: Democrats <1%District 99: Democrats <1%122335404445505152535457585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 43 D to 56 R
District 1: Democrats win >99%District 2: Democrats win >99%District 3: Democrats win >99%District 4: Democrats win >99%District 5: Democrats win >99%District 6: Democrats win >99%District 7: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win >99%District 16: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 19: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win >99%District 33: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 36: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win >99%District 58: Democrats win >99%District 28: Democrats win >99%District 53: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 14: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win 98%District 10: Democrats win 96%District 31: Democrats win 87%District 49: Democrats win 86%District 60: Democrats win 83%District 17: Democrats win 65%District 37: Democrats win 62%District 52: Democrats win 57%District 39: Democrats win 45%District 29: Democrats win 39%District 44: Democrats win 37%District 32: Democrats win 30%District 75: Democrats win 28%District 72: Democrats win 16%District 68: Democrats win 11%District 73: Democrats win 9%District 59: Democrats win 9%District 70: Democrats win 7%District 61: Democrats win 5%District 45: Democrats win 4%District 56: Democrats win 4%District 57: Democrats win 3%District 47: Democrats win 2%District 66: Democrats win <1%District 62: Democrats win <1%District 65: Democrats win <1%District 74: Democrats win <1%District 99: Democrats win <1%District 46: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 50: Democrats win <1%District 54: Democrats win <1%District 88: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 40: Democrats win <1%District 51: Democrats win <1%District 55: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 64: Democrats win <1%District 67: Democrats win <1%District 69: Democrats win <1%District 71: Democrats win <1%District 76: Democrats win <1%District 77: Democrats win <1%District 78: Democrats win <1%District 79: Democrats win <1%District 80: Democrats win <1%District 81: Democrats win <1%District 82: Democrats win <1%District 83: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 85: Democrats win <1%District 86: Democrats win <1%District 87: Democrats win <1%District 89: Democrats win <1%District 90: Democrats win <1%District 91: Democrats win <1%District 92: Democrats win <1%District 93: Democrats win <1%District 94: Democrats win <1%District 95: Democrats win <1%District 96: Democrats win <1%District 97: Democrats win <1%District 98: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
50 for a majority3141505457

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
39Phil Plummer 2024Primary results not postedR +5.7R +1.045%21,87022,31644,859Toss up
52Gayle Manning 2024Mike Baker vs Nathan ManningR +4.1D +1.557%25,35024,60150,712Toss up
29Cindy Abrams 2024Primary results not postedR +10.7R +1.839%23,21324,07848,011Toss up
44Josh Williams 2024David Fournier vs Edward SchimmelR +10.2R +2.137%26,11127,22054,143Lean R
37Tom Young 2024Primary results not postedR +8.5D +2.262%26,54425,38652,722Lean D
17Mike Dovilla 2024Megan Coy vs Mike DovillaR +6.5D +3.065%27,82726,23354,883Lean D
32Jack K Daniels 2024Primary results not postedR +14.1R +3.630%21,71423,34545,746Lean R
75Haraz N Ghanbari 2024Jake Kielmeyer vs Haraz GhanbariR +10.8R +4.128%21,71323,58945,992Lean R
60Brian Lorenz 2024Shelby Kimball vs Brian LorenzR +0.8D +6.183%29,22525,85455,918Likely D
72Heidi Workman 2024Jeff Clapper vs Heidi WorkmanR +16.8R +6.516%22,01125,06647,793Likely R
49Jim Thomas 2024Krista Allison vs Jim ThomasR +2.6D +7.186%20,60217,87839,065Likely D
31Bill Roemer 2024Primary results not postedR +1.0D +7.387%28,35924,50553,670Likely D
68Thad Claggett 2024Mason Blankenship vs Thaddeus ClaggettR +19.9R +8.311%22,31826,33149,390Likely R
59Tex Fischer 2024Wayne Penny Jr. vs Tex FischerR +24.4R +8.89%23,13127,57851,482Likely R
73Jeff Lare 2024Whittney Wood vs Jeff LaReR +16.8R +8.89%23,40827,93152,122Likely R
70Brian Lampton 2024Kim McCarthy vs Brian LamptonR +17.2R +9.67%22,83327,69951,301Likely R
45Jennifer Gross 2024Jayson Rasheed vs Jennifer GrossR +19.5R +11.24%21,92827,44850,128Likely R
61Beth Lear 2024Vince McGrail vs Shawn StevensR +19.7R +11.25%25,96932,52059,380Likely R
10Mark Sigrist 2024Mark Sigrist vs Denise D'AngeloR +1.7D +11.496%24,13019,19943,989Likely D
56Adam Mathews 2024Laalitya Acharya vs Adam MathewsR +18.7R +11.54%22,93228,86852,589Likely R

Projected Ohio House vote

99 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats2,236,10548.7%
Republicans2,289,67449.9%
Independents and others61,8781.3%
Total4,587,667100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.