2026 state legislative forecast
New York Assembly forecast
Democrats win control of the New York Assembly in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 150 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 6 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
108 to 121Median 114 ยท 76 for a majority
Favored to flip
11to D0to R
After 2024: 103 D, 47 R
Environment
D +13.2Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
New York Assembly map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 115 D to 36 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Assembly district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jake Blumencranz 2024 | Dean Tarulli vs Paolo A. Pironi | R +9.4 | D +0.5 | 55% | 28,416 | 28,145 | 57,422 | Toss up |
| 133 | Andrea K Bailey 2024 | Gladys Flores vs Andrea K. Bailey | D +6.5 | D +1.0 | 57% | 28,558 | 27,976 | 57,394 | Toss up |
| 145 | Angelo J Morinello 2024 | Nathan D. McMurray vs Becky Wydysh | R +6.6 | R +1.5 | 42% | 25,219 | 25,997 | 51,996 | Toss up |
| 122 | Brian D Miller 2024 | Ihor Semko vs Brian D. Miller | R +4.8 | R +2.3 | 37% | 26,550 | 27,783 | 55,160 | Lean R |
| 97 | Aron B Wieder 2024 | Aron B. Wieder vs Rob Bonomolo ยท Abraham Klein (C) | R +25.5 | D +2.3 | 63% | 21,056 | 20,117 | 41,799 | Lean D |
| 124 | Christopher S Friend 2024 | Andrew G. Fagan vs Christopher S. Friend | R +15.7 | R +2.6 | 35% | 21,912 | 23,068 | 45,665 | Lean R |
| 63 | Sam T Pirozzolo 2024 | Matthew Mobilia vs Sam T. Pirozzolo | R +16.7 | R +2.8 | 32% | 19,952 | 21,089 | 41,667 | Lean R |
| 105 | Anil R Beephan Jr 2024 | Brooklyn Talarico vs Anil R. Beephan Jr. | R +9.7 | D +3.6 | 70% | 30,319 | 28,229 | 59,439 | Lean D |
| 130 | Brian D Manktelow 2024 | Carl Fitzsimmons vs George Dobbins ยท Joseph Lamanna (O) | R +9.1 | R +5.5 | 20% | 26,269 | 29,333 | 56,449 | Lean R |
| 134 | Josh Jensen 2024 | Kurt Vanwuyckhuyse vs Josh Jensen | R +7.5 | D +5.8 | 81% | 16,224 | 14,457 | 31,148 | Lean D |
| 94 | Matthew J Slater 2024 | Daniel Guzman vs Matthew J. Slater | R +12.7 | R +5.9 | 19% | 28,718 | 32,325 | 61,972 | Lean R |
| 112 | Mary Beth Walsh 2024 | Mario L. Fantini vs Mary Beth Walsh | D +3.5 | D +6.1 | 81% | 32,586 | 28,845 | 62,366 | Likely D |
| 131 | Jeff Gallahan 2024 | Phillip Fleming vs Mark Benjamin | R +19.4 | R +6.4 | 16% | 17,232 | 19,585 | 37,378 | Likely R |
| 3 | Not on file 2022 | Joshua P. Slaughter vs Joseph P. De Stefano | R +16.4 | R +6.5 | 17% | 19,099 | 21,776 | 41,497 | Likely R |
| 46 | Alec Brook-Krasny 2024 | Chris McCreight vs Alec Brook-Krasny | R +9.7 | D +6.5 | 83% | 18,601 | 16,314 | 35,447 | Likely D |
| 12 | Not on file 2022 | Craig G. Herskowitz vs David D. Weber Jr. | R +3.1 | D +6.7 | 84% | 21,805 | 19,070 | 41,497 | Likely D |
| 144 | Paul A Bologna 2024 | Donna L. Dye Sholk vs Paul A. Bologna | R +15.9 | R +6.8 | 15% | 27,719 | 31,745 | 60,370 | Likely R |
| 102 | Christopher Tague 2024 | Janet S. Tweed vs Marcus Molinaro | R +13.8 | R +7.0 | 15% | 36,613 | 42,090 | 79,902 | Likely R |
| 114 | Matthew J Simpson 2024 | John Gunther vs Matthew J. Simpson | R +0.6 | R +7.3 | 13% | 24,998 | 28,958 | 54,778 | Likely R |
| 119 | Marian Buettenschon 2024 | Jonathan E. Lipe vs Michael C. Gentile | R +13.2 | D +7.4 | 86% | 20,117 | 17,345 | 38,032 | Likely D |
| 7 | Not on file 2022 | Patricia A. Kopp vs Dawn Marie D. Kuhn | R +15.6 | R +7.4 | 15% | 18,919 | 21,956 | 41,497 | Likely R |
| 49 | Lester Chang 2024 | Joyce Xiaoqiong Xie vs Lester Chang | R +20.9 | R +7.9 | 12% | 8,338 | 9,763 | 18,376 | Likely R |
| 47 | William Colton 2024 | William Colton vs John J. Ricottone | R +24.3 | D +8.5 | 91% | 12,542 | 10,579 | 23,473 | Likely D |
| 23 | Stacey G Pheffer Amato 2024 | Pesach Osina vs Thomas P. Sullivan | R +12.3 | D +8.8 | 90% | 20,560 | 17,248 | 38,384 | Likely D |
| 150 | Andrew M Molitor 2024 | Thomas A. Carle vs Andrew M. Molitor | R +19.0 | R +9.5 | 7% | 20,426 | 24,694 | 45,807 | Likely R |
| 19 | Edward P Ra 2024 | Colleen Connaughton vs Edward P. Ra | R +15.9 | R +9.5 | 7% | 25,449 | 30,804 | 57,110 | Likely R |
| 126 | John Lemondes Jr 2024 | Ian Phillips vs John Lemondes Jr. | D +3.3 | D +9.8 | 93% | 32,696 | 26,832 | 60,435 | Likely D |
| 20 | Eric Ari Brown 2024 | Meir Fischer vs Eric Ari Brown | R +21.2 | R +10.4 | 6% | 23,910 | 29,443 | 54,165 | Likely R |
| 99 | Christopher W Eachus 2024 | Christopher W. Eachus vs Richard A. Vargus | R +18.8 | D +10.4 | 95% | 23,044 | 18,698 | 42,378 | Likely D |
| 2 | Not on file 2022 | Michael J. Szika vs Jodi A. Giglio ยท Kimberly Wilder (O) | R +19.9 | R +10.7 | 6% | 18,261 | 22,614 | 41,497 | Likely R |
| 14 | David G Mcdonough 2024 | John E. Brooks vs Shannon R. Fredericks | R +19.2 | R +10.8 | 5% | 28,938 | 35,946 | 65,872 | Likely R |
Projected New York Assembly vote
150 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 4,148,651 | 66.1% |
| Republicans | 2,062,786 | 32.9% |
| Independents and others | 63,955 | 1.0% |
| Total | 6,275,386 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.