2026 state legislative forecast

Nevada Assembly forecast

Democrats win control of the Nevada Assembly in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 42 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 42On the ballot 42Nevada Senate All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

30 to 35

Median 33 · 22 for a majority

Favored to flip

6to D0to R

After 2024: 27 D, 15 R

Environment

D +15.1

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Nevada Assembly map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 33 D to 10 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Assembly district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
26	Rich Delong 2024	Sam Baugh vs Richard DeLong	R +6.8	D +0.9	56%	20,146	19,775	40,528	Toss up
23	Danielle Gallant 2024	Jan Allen Aspelund vs Denise Daniels Fanning	R +17.0	R +1.9	39%	20,456	21,270	42,361	Toss up
22	Melissa Hardy 2024	Shenea Booth vs Melissa Hardy	R +11.3	D +3.9	73%	19,205	17,763	37,530	Lean D
40	Philip "Pk" O'Neill 2024	Oscar Fuentes vs Julie A. Butler	R +15.3	R +4.0	26%	15,965	17,278	33,749	Lean R
13	Brian Hibbetts 2024	Daniel Andrews vs Brian Hibbetts	R +8.6	D +5.4	78%	18,239	16,380	35,146	Lean D
31	Jill Dickman 2024	Neal Schwartz vs Jill Dickman	R +16.2	R +5.9	18%	17,414	19,614	37,592	Lean R
2	Heidi Kasama 2024	Kamilah Bywaters vs Drew Teitelbaum	R +5.7	D +6.4	83%	17,583	15,455	33,541	Likely D
4	Lisa Cole 2024	Eileen Eady vs Lisa Cole	R +8.7	D +6.5	82%	17,239	15,147	32,879	Likely D
35	Rebecca Edgeworth 2024	Joe Spica vs Rebecca Edgeworth	R +3.1	D +9.3	92%	17,625	14,625	32,741	Likely D
36	Gregory Hafen Ii 2024	Jon Penn Junejo vs Gregory T. Hafen II	R +24.1	R +11.0	5%	16,842	21,022	38,441	Likely R

Projected Nevada Assembly vote

42 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	672,563	56.8%
Republicans	498,344	42.1%
Independents and others	12,615	1.1%
Total	1,183,515	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.