2026 state legislative forecast

New Mexico House forecast

Democrats win control of the New Mexico House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 70 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 70On the ballot 70All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

45 to 49

Median 47 · 36 for a majority

Favored to flip

4to D1to R

After 2024: 45 D, 25 R

Environment

D +11.0

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

New Mexico House map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 47 D to 23 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every House district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
31	Not on file 2022	Lisa K Curtis vs Nicole Chavez	R +9.9	D +0.7	54%	15,729	15,523	31,728	Toss up
7	Tanya R Mirabal Moya 2024	Rickie Allen Gonzales II vs Tanya R Mirabal Moya	R +14.4	R +4.2	28%	12,428	13,518	26,341	Lean R
38	Not on file 2022	David L Mooney vs Rebecca Dow	D +1.4	D +5.0	77%	16,401	14,851	31,728	Lean D
57	Not on file 2022	Chriselle Verene Martinez vs Catherine Jeanette Cullen	R +3.6	D +5.5	79%	16,492	14,760	31,728	Lean D
32	Not on file 2022	Laura Mairel Parra vs Jenifer Marie Jones	R +0.6	D +6.0	82%	16,571	14,681	31,728	Likely D
39	Not on file 2022	Raul S Turrieta vs Luis M Terrazas	R +6.6	D +6.1	84%	16,573	14,679	31,728	Likely D
22	Stefani Lord 2024	William (Bill) Scott vs Stefani Lord · Zachary P Withers (I)	R +10.5	R +9.2	8%	20,714	24,932	46,342	Likely R
68	Not on file 2022	Charlotte L Little vs David E Adkins	D +0.3	D +10.8	95%	17,306	13,946	31,728	Likely D
8	Brian G Baca 2024	Katherine Joanna Gauer vs Brian G Baca	R +19.5	R +11.0	5%	15,995	19,961	36,503	Likely R

Projected New Mexico House vote

70 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	901,232	62.1%
Republicans	526,658	36.3%
Independents and others	24,202	1.7%
Total	1,452,092	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.