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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Indiana Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Indiana Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 25 of the 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 25 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 50On the ballot 25Indiana HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
10 to 13
Median 11 · 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D0to R
After 2024: 7 D, 37 R
Environment
D +10.2
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Indiana Senate map

District 1: Democrats >99%District 2, not up in 2026District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats <1%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats 31%District 7, not up in 2026District 8, not up in 2026District 9, not up in 2026District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats <1%District 12, not up in 2026District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats <1%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats 16%District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats 8%District 26: Democrats 69%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats >99%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats 90%District 32, not up in 2026District 33, not up in 2026District 34, not up in 2026District 35, not up in 2026District 36, not up in 2026District 37, not up in 2026District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats <1%District 40, not up in 2026District 41: Democrats <1%District 42, not up in 2026District 43: Democrats <1%District 44, not up in 2026District 45: Democrats 16%District 46: Democrats <1%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats <1%District 49: Democrats <1%District 50, not up in 20263457891011121315161718192021222324252627283738394041424344454647484950
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 11 D to 39 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 29: Democrats win >99%District 1: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win 90%District 26: Democrats win 69%District 6: Democrats win 31%District 45: Democrats win 16%District 21: Democrats win 16%District 25: Democrats win 8%District 41: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 11: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 43: Democrats win <1%District 46: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 49: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
26 for a majority61618

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
26Scott Alexander 2022Andrew Dale vs Scott Alexander · Tanya Pearson (O)R +9.0D +2.969%35,40533,38969,841Lean D
6Rick Niemeyer 2022Kate-Lynn Holley vs Jay StarkeyR +13.6R +3.531%33,99436,46771,534Lean R
45Chris Garten 2022Nick Marshall vs Chris GartenR +17.4R +6.616%38,89844,42284,588Likely R
21James R Buck 2022Kirsten Root vs Tracey PowellR +17.8R +6.816%42,40448,60192,390Likely R
31Kyle Walker 2022Kerry Forestal vs Juanita AlbrightR +0.1D +8.490%46,69339,48887,493Likely D
25Mike Gaskill 2022Tamie Dixon-Tatum vs Mike GaskillR +19.1R +9.28%39,02546,94387,277Likely R

Projected Indiana Senate vote

25 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats467,97642.9%
Republicans605,46155.6%
Independents and others16,3471.5%
Total1,089,781100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.