2026 state legislative forecast
Iowa House forecast
Republicans win control of the Iowa House in 92% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 5 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
5%D92%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
37 to 49Median 43 ยท 51 for a majority
Favored to flip
8to D0to R
After 2024: 33 D, 66 R, 1 other
Environment
D +10.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Iowa House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 43 D to 57 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | Matthew Rinker 2024 | Jennifer Kirkman vs Matthew Rinker | R +8.4 | D +0.6 | 57% | 5,951 | 5,880 | 12,011 | Toss up |
| 91 | Judd Lawler 2024 | Mark Divitt vs Judd Lawler | R +13.1 | R +0.9 | 44% | 7,834 | 7,976 | 16,050 | Toss up |
| 46 | Dan Gehlbach 2024 | Mandy Newton Rosenow vs Dan Gehlbach | R +8.8 | D +1.0 | 55% | 8,090 | 7,936 | 16,270 | Toss up |
| 94 | Mike Vondran 2024 | Karen Roebuck vs Mike Vondran | R +8.0 | R +1.1 | 43% | 7,010 | 7,170 | 14,396 | Toss up |
| 19 | Brent Siegrist 2024 | Benjamin Thomas Larson vs Brent Siegrist | R +8.7 | R +2.5 | 35% | 5,321 | 5,597 | 11,085 | Lean R |
| 69 | Tom Determann 2024 | Randy Meier vs Tom Determann | R +12.6 | R +2.8 | 35% | 5,854 | 6,195 | 12,232 | Lean R |
| 83 | Cindy Golding 2024 | Mike Bergman vs Cindy Golding | R +10.9 | R +3.8 | 29% | 7,485 | 8,070 | 15,791 | Lean R |
| 93 | Gary Mohr 2024 | Keith Soko vs Gary M. Mohr | R +8.2 | R +3.9 | 28% | 7,461 | 8,070 | 15,768 | Lean R |
| 52 | David Blom 2024 | Mike Tupper vs David Blom | R +7.4 | D +4.6 | 74% | 5,155 | 4,705 | 10,010 | Lean D |
| 96 | Mark Cisneros 2024 | Nick Salazar vs Mark Cisneros | R +12.8 | R +4.8 | 22% | 5,303 | 5,835 | 11,308 | Lean R |
| 59 | Christian Hermanson 2024 | Jacob Welper vs Christian Hermanson | R +5.3 | D +5.3 | 79% | 6,723 | 6,052 | 12,969 | Lean D |
| 40 | Bill Gustoff 2024 | Heather Sievers vs Bill Gustoff | R +7.7 | D +5.8 | 80% | 7,420 | 6,606 | 14,240 | Lean D |
| 53 | Dean Fisher 2024 | Berleen Wobeter vs Dean Fisher | R +19.6 | R +6.3 | 19% | 5,963 | 6,759 | 12,916 | Likely R |
| 28 | David Young 2024 | Tom Walton vs David Young | R +1.8 | D +6.4 | 84% | 8,341 | 7,342 | 15,921 | Likely D |
| 72 | Jennifer J Smith 2024 | Matt Robinson vs Jennifer Smith | R +1.4 | D +6.5 | 84% | 6,961 | 6,106 | 13,266 | Likely D |
| 38 | Jon Dunwell 2024 | Brad Magg vs Matthew Oleson | R +25.1 | R +8.0 | 12% | 5,996 | 7,043 | 13,238 | Likely R |
| 92 | Heather Hora 2024 | Brittany Erickson vs Heather Hora | R +15.4 | R +8.1 | 11% | 5,775 | 6,790 | 12,756 | Likely R |
| 41 | Ryan Weldon 2024 | Molly Buck vs Ryan Weldon | R +3.5 | D +8.5 | 91% | 9,275 | 7,826 | 17,361 | Likely D |
| 20 | Josh Turek 2024 | Eric Armstrong vs Keith Jones | R +8.3 | D +8.9 | 91% | 4,976 | 4,164 | 9,279 | Likely D |
| 48 | Chad Behn 2024 | Benjamin Olsen vs Chad Behn | R +18.0 | R +8.9 | 8% | 6,606 | 7,903 | 14,730 | Likely R |
| 76 | Derek Wulf 2024 | Calvin Horn vs Matt Reisetter | R +18.5 | R +9.4 | 8% | 6,465 | 7,804 | 14,486 | Likely R |
| 22 | Samantha Fett 2024 | Rory Taylor vs Samantha Fett | R +21.0 | R +9.5 | 7% | 7,385 | 8,930 | 16,563 | Likely R |
| 87 | Jeff Shipley 2024 | Thomas R. O'Donnell vs Jeff Shipley | R +21.4 | R +9.6 | 7% | 5,325 | 6,458 | 11,962 | Likely R |
| 98 | Monica Kurth 2024 | Andrew Fitzgerald vs Nathan Ramker | R +1.7 | D +9.8 | 94% | 5,886 | 4,830 | 10,879 | Likely D |
| 2 | Robert Henderson 2024 | Jessica Lopez-Walker vs Robert Henderson | R +19.0 | R +9.9 | 7% | 4,403 | 5,370 | 9,922 | Likely R |
| 21 | Brooke Boden 2024 | Spencer A Waugh vs Brooke Boden | R +24.0 | R +10.4 | 6% | 6,249 | 7,701 | 14,162 | Likely R |
| 42 | Heather Matson 2024 | Amy Tagliareni vs Heather Stephenson | R +0.7 | D +10.6 | 95% | 8,117 | 6,559 | 14,899 | Likely D |
| 43 | Eddie Andrews 2024 | Jill Alesch vs Nicole Hasso | D +4.1 | D +10.8 | 95% | 8,433 | 6,782 | 15,447 | Likely D |
| 66 | Steven P Bradley 2024 | Matt English vs Steven Bradley | R +31.5 | R +11.2 | 4% | 6,152 | 7,696 | 14,059 | Likely R |
| 82 | Bobby Kaufmann 2024 | James Behrmann vs Bobby Kaufmann | R +22.7 | R +11.7 | 4% | 6,017 | 7,604 | 13,829 | Likely R |
| 81 | Daniel Gosa 2024 | Daniel Gosa vs Dillon Fillion | D +1.3 | D +11.8 | 96% | 6,699 | 5,285 | 12,167 | Likely D |
Projected Iowa House vote
100 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 680,188 | 51.6% |
| Republicans | 622,221 | 47.2% |
| Independents and others | 15,438 | 1.2% |
| Total | 1,317,847 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.