2026 state legislative forecast
Florida House forecast
Republicans win control of the Florida House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 120 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 9 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
34 to 50Median 41 ยท 61 for a majority
Favored to flip
10to D0to R
After 2024: 29 D, 85 R
Environment
D +9.1Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Florida House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 42 D to 78 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | Peggy Gossett-Seidman 2024 | Luis Garcia vs Peggy Gossett-Seidman | R +8.6 | D +0.3 | 50% | 43,278 | 43,053 | 87,645 | Toss up |
| 22 | Chad Johnson 2024 | Amy Trask vs Chad Johnson | R +6.3 | R +0.6 | 47% | 44,385 | 44,921 | 90,665 | Toss up |
| 73 | Fiona Mcfarland 2024 | Lisa Klein vs Fiona McFarland | R +6.8 | R +0.6 | 46% | 46,122 | 46,679 | 94,215 | Toss up |
| 94 | Meg Weinberger 2024 | Elizabeth Holmes vs Megan Weinberger ยท Doug Barrow (I) | R +9.9 | R +0.9 | 46% | 42,431 | 43,245 | 86,981 | Toss up |
| 65 | Karen Gonzalez Pittman 2024 | Ben Braver vs Karen Gonzalez Pittman | R +6.5 | R +1.4 | 40% | 41,338 | 42,520 | 85,135 | Toss up |
| 61 | Linda Chaney 2024 | May Thach vs Linda Chaney | R +8.6 | R +1.4 | 40% | 41,758 | 42,978 | 86,026 | Toss up |
| 113 | Vicki Lopez 2024 | Gloria Romero Roses vs Bruno A. Barreiro | R +5.4 | D +1.7 | 57% | 28,102 | 27,140 | 56,083 | Toss up |
| 100 | Chip Lamarca 2024 | Michael Terence Ferguson vs Yoni Anijar | R +7.8 | R +2.3 | 36% | 41,361 | 43,282 | 85,932 | Lean R |
| 106 | Fabian Basabe 2024 | Lucia Baez-Geller vs Fabian Basabe | R +9.2 | D +2.4 | 64% | 34,897 | 33,275 | 69,210 | Lean D |
| 33 | Monique Miller 2024 | Daniel R. McDow vs Monique Miller | R +11.6 | R +2.9 | 33% | 42,486 | 44,978 | 88,796 | Lean R |
| 12 | Wyman Duggan 2024 | Benjamin Sandlin vs Terrance Freeman | R +10.4 | R +3.2 | 30% | 35,362 | 37,700 | 74,175 | Lean R |
| 69 | Daniel "Danny" Alvarez 2024 | Ashley Elizabeth Herrmann vs Daniel "Danny" Alvarez | R +8.8 | R +3.6 | 29% | 36,955 | 39,723 | 77,846 | Lean R |
| 36 | Rachel Plakon 2024 | Darryl Block vs Rachel Plakon | R +3.1 | D +4.0 | 73% | 40,784 | 37,677 | 79,656 | Lean D |
| 84 | Dana Trabulsy 2024 | Jennifer Massey vs Dana Trabulsy | R +11.0 | R +4.5 | 24% | 39,107 | 42,793 | 83,147 | Lean R |
| 85 | Toby Overdorf 2024 | Wayne Richter vs Anthony Bonna ยท Amr Metwally (O) | R +12.9 | R +4.6 | 24% | 46,805 | 51,288 | 99,587 | Lean R |
| 58 | Kimberly "Kim" Berfield 2024 | Bryan Beckman vs Kimberly "Kim" Berfield | R +12.2 | R +4.7 | 25% | 38,215 | 42,009 | 81,445 | Lean R |
| 51 | Josie Tomkow 2024 | Octavio E. Hernandez vs Hilary Holley | R +13.8 | R +4.7 | 24% | 38,253 | 42,060 | 81,535 | Lean R |
| 35 | Erika Booth 2024 | Eric Gray vs Erika Booth | R +4.2 | D +5.0 | 78% | 43,146 | 39,029 | 83,426 | Lean D |
| 39 | Doug Bankson 2024 | Jarod Fox vs Doug Bankson | R +3.1 | D +5.0 | 77% | 41,175 | 37,231 | 79,600 | Lean D |
| 17 | Jessica Baker 2024 | Jacob Guerrero vs Jessica Baker | R +12.6 | R +5.4 | 23% | 36,793 | 40,961 | 78,939 | Lean R |
| 66 | Traci Koster 2024 | Jose A. "Dante" Sanchez Sanchez vs Traci Koster | R +13.0 | R +5.8 | 19% | 40,011 | 44,920 | 86,224 | Lean R |
| 87 | Mike Caruso 2024 | Emily Gregory vs Jon Maples | R +10.8 | R +5.9 | 19% | 40,601 | 45,664 | 87,579 | Lean R |
| 29 | Webster Barnaby 2024 | Don Kanfer vs Webster Barnaby | R +16.6 | R +6.5 | 16% | 37,248 | 42,461 | 80,923 | Likely R |
| 70 | Michael Owen 2024 | Luther Keith Wilkins vs Michael Owen | R +13.9 | R +6.8 | 15% | 47,009 | 53,815 | 102,359 | Likely R |
| 48 | Jon Albert 2024 | Alethea Pugh vs Jonathan Albert | R +16.0 | R +6.9 | 14% | 35,939 | 41,274 | 78,388 | Likely R |
| 59 | Berny Jacques 2024 | Susan Rochelle Leff vs Berny Jacques | R +16.2 | R +7.8 | 12% | 35,543 | 41,565 | 78,282 | Likely R |
| 28 | Bill Partington 2024 | Sammy Jackson vs Bill Partington | R +16.2 | R +8.2 | 11% | 37,966 | 44,775 | 84,001 | Likely R |
| 78 | Jenna Persons-Mulicka 2024 | Cindy Banyai vs Susan Frantz | R +14.6 | R +8.2 | 11% | 32,724 | 38,593 | 72,403 | Likely R |
| 115 | Omar Blanco 2024 | Marcos Reyes vs Omar Blanco | R +16.0 | R +8.4 | 10% | 37,894 | 44,834 | 83,988 | Likely R |
| 71 | Will Robinson 2024 | Ocean Fitts vs Jordan Varnadore ยท Joseph Hoolihan (I) | R +16.1 | R +8.6 | 10% | 28,897 | 34,363 | 64,224 | Likely R |
| 93 | Anne Gerwig 2024 | August Mangeney vs Anne Gerwig | D +1.0 | D +9.4 | 92% | 44,372 | 36,739 | 82,346 | Likely D |
| 25 | Taylor Yarkosky 2024 | Farmer Banks Helfrich vs Taylor Yarkosky | R +16.8 | R +9.5 | 6% | 42,661 | 51,649 | 95,747 | Likely R |
| 38 | David Smith 2024 | Nik Dean vs Emily Duda Buckley | D +1.7 | D +9.6 | 92% | 43,529 | 35,925 | 80,664 | Likely D |
| 45 | Leonard Spencer 2024 | Leonard Spencer vs Erin Huntley | R +0.4 | D +9.8 | 94% | 48,605 | 39,953 | 89,907 | Likely D |
| 57 | Adam C Anderson 2024 | Wendy Hoy vs Adam C. Anderson | R +16.8 | R +9.9 | 7% | 42,162 | 51,386 | 94,973 | Likely R |
| 64 | Susan L Valdes 2024 | Luis Salazar vs Dan Weldon | R +2.7 | D +10.1 | 94% | 29,730 | 24,261 | 54,814 | Likely D |
| 54 | Randy Maggard 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +18.1 | R +10.2 | 6% | 40,547 | 49,799 | 91,722 | Likely R |
| 37 | Susan Plasencia 2024 | Jane Aman vs Robert Prater | D +3.1 | D +10.3 | 95% | 35,862 | 29,141 | 65,993 | Likely D |
| 89 | Debra Tendrich 2024 | Debra Tendrich vs Cathy Higgins | D +1.3 | D +11.0 | 95% | 25,792 | 20,685 | 47,185 | Likely D |
Projected Florida House vote
120 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 4,189,807 | 45.3% |
| Republicans | 4,912,285 | 53.1% |
| Independents and others | 149,909 | 1.6% |
| Total | 9,251,994 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.