2026 state legislative forecast

Connecticut Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Connecticut Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 36 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 36On the ballot 36Connecticut House All chambers

Chance of control

>99%D<1%R

Democratic seats, 80% range

31 to 36

Median 34 · 19 for a majority

Favored to flip

10to D0to R

After 2024: 25 D, 11 R

Environment

D +12.0

Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Connecticut Senate map

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 34 D to 2 R

Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations

Every Senate district

District	Last winner	2026 nominees	2024 lean	Forecast	Dem win	Projected D votes	Projected R votes	Total	Rating
32	Eric C Berthel 2024	Matt Knickerbocker vs Eric Berthel	R +9.3	D +0.1	50%	24,750	24,710	50,213	Toss up
16	Rob Sampson 2024	Jack Perry vs Robert Sampson	R +9.8	D +0.5	53%	21,262	21,063	42,969	Toss up
34	Paul Cicarella 2024	Brandi Mandato vs Paul Cicarella	R +4.7	D +2.9	66%	21,480	20,265	42,381	Lean D
31	Henri Martin 2024	Laurel LaPorte-Grimes vs Henri Martin	R +8.2	D +3.8	73%	20,299	18,813	39,708	Lean D
18	Heather Somers 2024	Joe de la Cruz vs Heather Somers	D +5.4	D +5.6	80%	21,036	18,812	40,455	Lean D
7	John A Kissel 2024	David Kiner vs John Kissel	D +2.2	D +8.7	90%	22,901	19,239	42,782	Likely D
30	Stephen G Harding 2024	Aaron Zimmer vs Stephen Harding	D +0.9	D +8.8	90%	25,251	21,145	47,102	Likely D
35	Jeff Gordon 2024	Ethan Werstler vs Jeff Gordon	D +3.0	D +10.6	95%	23,955	19,375	43,990	Likely D
21	Kevin C Kelly 2024	Carolann Reid vs Jason Perillo	R +0.5	D +11.4	96%	25,047	19,909	45,641	Likely D

Projected Connecticut Senate vote

36 seats on the ballot

Party	Votes	Share
Democrats	895,828	65.0%
Republicans	464,610	33.7%
Independents and others	17,686	1.3%
Total	1,378,121	100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built

Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.