California Assembly forecast
Democrats win control of the California Assembly in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 80 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
California Assembly map
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 68 D to 12 REvery Assembly district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Projected D votes | Projected R votes | Total | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | Carl Demaio 2024 | Gerald C. Boursiquot vs Carl DeMaio | R +14.2 | R +0.4 | 48% | 98,353 | 99,223 | 200,585 | Toss up |
| 1 | Heather Hadwick 2024 | Dianna Margaret James vs Heather Hadwick | R +16.5 | R +2.8 | 34% | 103,881 | 109,954 | 217,092 | Lean R |
| 72 | Diane Dixon 2024 | Chris Kluwe vs Gracey Van Der Mark | R +2.8 | D +2.9 | 67% | 114,206 | 107,790 | 225,376 | Lean D |
| 71 | Kate Sanchez 2024 | JJ Galvez vs Kate Sanchez | R +11.4 | R +3.6 | 29% | 97,310 | 104,620 | 205,004 | Lean R |
| 5 | Joe Patterson 2024 | Neva Parker vs Joe Patterson | R +11.0 | R +3.9 | 28% | 113,151 | 122,384 | 239,121 | Lean R |
| 33 | Alexandra Macedo 2024 | Hipolito Angel Cerros vs Alexandra (Ali) Macedo | R +19.0 | R +5.4 | 20% | 50,261 | 55,954 | 107,832 | Lean R |
| 70 | Tri Ta 2024 | Paula Swift vs Tri Ta | R +3.2 | D +7.5 | 88% | 79,949 | 68,793 | 151,007 | Likely D |
| 34 | Tom Lackey 2024 | Randall Putz vs Charles Frederick Hughes | R +20.3 | R +8.6 | 10% | 72,749 | 86,509 | 161,683 | Likely R |
| 9 | Heath Flora 2024 | Matthew Adams vs Heath Flora | R +23.9 | R +10.5 | 6% | 72,953 | 90,089 | 165,524 | Likely R |
| 36 | Jeff Gonzalez 2024 | Ida S. Obeso-Martinez vs Jeff Gonzalez | R +1.2 | D +11.4 | 96% | 70,749 | 56,269 | 128,951 | Likely D |
Projected California Assembly vote
80 seats on the ballot| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 8,469,615 | 65.4% |
| Republicans | 4,262,666 | 32.9% |
| Independents and others | 224,839 | 1.7% |
| Total | 12,957,110 | 100% |
The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.