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GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Arizona House forecast

Democrats win control of the Arizona House in 63% of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 60 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Lean DUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 60On the ballot 60Arizona SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
63%D18%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
28 to 33
Median 31 · 31 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D1to R
After 2024: 26 D, 34 R
Environment
D +13.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Arizona House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats 11%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats 80%District 5: Democrats >99%District 6: Democrats >99%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats 3%District 11: Democrats >99%District 12: Democrats >99%District 13: Democrats 83%District 14: Democrats 3%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats 74%District 18: Democrats >99%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats >99%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats >99%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats 3%District 30: Democrats <1%12345678101214151618192021232527282930
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 31 D to 29 R
District 5: Democrats win >99%District 5: Democrats win >99%District 6: Democrats win >99%District 6: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 8: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 12: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 18: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 20: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win 83%District 13: Democrats win 83%District 4: Democrats win 80%District 4: Democrats win 80%District 17: Democrats win 74%District 17: Democrats win 74%District 2: Democrats win 11%District 2: Democrats win 11%District 14: Democrats win 3%District 14: Democrats win 3%District 10: Democrats win 3%District 10: Democrats win 3%District 29: Democrats win 3%District 29: Democrats win 3%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
31 for a majority2327313539

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
172 seatsRachel Jones, Cory Mcgarr 2024Hollace Lyon, Kevin Volk vs John Winchester, Rachel KeshelR +8.7D +4.274%5,4735,02910,662Lean D
42 seatsMatt Gress, Pamela Carter 2024Karen Gresham, Tammy Caputi vs Matt Gress, Pamela CarterR +3.6D +5.880%71,65463,759137,476Lean D
132 seatsJeff Weninger, Julie Willoughby 2024Racquel Armstrong, Jacob Weinberg vs Kevin Hartke, Janet WeningerR +1.2D +6.383%57,89151,070110,621Likely D
22 seatsStephanie Simacek, Justin Wilmeth 2024Stephanie Simacek vs Justin Wilmeth, Paul Carver Jr.R +5.6R +8.211%43,64251,41796,506Likely R

Projected Arizona House vote

60 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats1,438,36151.5%
Republicans1,317,74547.2%
Independents and others34,7251.2%
Total2,790,837100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

Legislative ballot polls

Weight 3%
PollsterField endDR
Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP2026-07-284946
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.