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12 DAYS OUT
GA GovBottoms D +0.6NE GovPillen R +1.3SC SenAndrews D +1.3AK SenPeltola D +1.7TX SenTalarico D +1.9ME SenJackson D +2.1TX GovAbbott R +2.4IA SenTurek D +2.4KS GovHolscher D +2.7WI GovCrowley D +2.8KS SenHamilton D +2.8MI SenEl-Sayed D +3.1NV GovFord D +3.1NE SenOsborn I +3.2OH SenBrown D +3.8OH GovActon D +4.2
2026 state legislative forecast

Arkansas House forecast

Republicans win control of the Arkansas House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 100 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 4 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 22, 2026Seats 100On the ballot 100Arkansas SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
22 to 28
Median 25 ยท 51 for a majority
Favored to flip
5to D0to R
After 2024: 19 D, 81 R
Environment
D +11.1
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Arkansas House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats <1%District 4: Democrats <1%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9: Democrats >99%District 10: Democrats 48%District 11: Democrats 12%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats 38%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats 38%District 16: Democrats <1%District 17: Democrats <1%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats 61%District 20: Democrats >99%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats <1%District 24: Democrats <1%District 25: Democrats <1%District 26: Democrats <1%District 27: Democrats <1%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats <1%District 31: Democrats <1%District 32: Democrats 8%District 33: Democrats <1%District 34: Democrats 14%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats <1%District 37: Democrats <1%District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats <1%District 40: Democrats <1%District 41: Democrats <1%District 42: Democrats <1%District 43: Democrats <1%District 44: Democrats <1%District 45: Democrats <1%District 46: Democrats <1%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats <1%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats 2%District 51: Democrats <1%District 52: Democrats <1%District 53: Democrats <1%District 54: Democrats <1%District 55: Democrats 31%District 56: Democrats 99%District 57: Democrats <1%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats <1%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats <1%District 62: Democrats 90%District 63: Democrats >99%District 64: Democrats >99%District 65: Democrats >99%District 66: Democrats >99%District 67: Democrats 92%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats <1%District 70: Democrats 95%District 71: Democrats 71%District 72: Democrats >99%District 73: Democrats >99%District 74: Democrats >99%District 75: Democrats >99%District 76: Democrats >99%District 77: Democrats >99%District 78: Democrats <1%District 79: Democrats >99%District 80: Democrats >99%District 81: Democrats 9%District 82: Democrats <1%District 83: Democrats <1%District 84: Democrats <1%District 85: Democrats <1%District 86: Democrats <1%District 87: Democrats <1%District 88: Democrats <1%District 89: Democrats <1%District 90: Democrats <1%District 91: Democrats <1%District 92: Democrats <1%District 93: Democrats <1%District 94: Democrats <1%District 95: Democrats <1%District 96: Democrats <1%District 97: Democrats <1%District 98: Democrats <1%District 99: Democrats <1%District 100: Democrats <1%123456162023242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647485253545758596061626364656878818283858687888990919293949596979899100
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 25 D to 75 R
District 20: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 63: Democrats win >99%District 64: Democrats win >99%District 65: Democrats win >99%District 66: Democrats win >99%District 72: Democrats win >99%District 73: Democrats win >99%District 74: Democrats win >99%District 75: Democrats win >99%District 76: Democrats win >99%District 77: Democrats win >99%District 79: Democrats win >99%District 80: Democrats win >99%District 9: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 56: Democrats win 99%District 70: Democrats win 95%District 67: Democrats win 92%District 62: Democrats win 90%District 71: Democrats win 71%District 19: Democrats win 61%District 10: Democrats win 48%District 13: Democrats win 38%District 15: Democrats win 38%District 55: Democrats win 31%District 34: Democrats win 14%District 11: Democrats win 12%District 81: Democrats win 9%District 32: Democrats win 8%District 50: Democrats win 2%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 16: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 3: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 23: Democrats win <1%District 24: Democrats win <1%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 26: Democrats win <1%District 27: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 30: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%District 33: Democrats win <1%District 36: Democrats win <1%District 37: Democrats win <1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 39: Democrats win <1%District 40: Democrats win <1%District 41: Democrats win <1%District 42: Democrats win <1%District 43: Democrats win <1%District 44: Democrats win <1%District 45: Democrats win <1%District 46: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 48: Democrats win <1%District 51: Democrats win <1%District 52: Democrats win <1%District 53: Democrats win <1%District 54: Democrats win <1%District 57: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 59: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 61: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 69: Democrats win <1%District 78: Democrats win <1%District 82: Democrats win <1%District 83: Democrats win <1%District 84: Democrats win <1%District 85: Democrats win <1%District 86: Democrats win <1%District 87: Democrats win <1%District 88: Democrats win <1%District 89: Democrats win <1%District 90: Democrats win <1%District 91: Democrats win <1%District 92: Democrats win <1%District 93: Democrats win <1%District 94: Democrats win <1%District 95: Democrats win <1%District 96: Democrats win <1%District 97: Democrats win <1%District 98: Democrats win <1%District 99: Democrats win <1%District 100: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
51 for a majority1634

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winProjected D votesProjected R votesTotalRating
10Mindy Mcalindon 2024Jacob Allen vs Mindy McAlindonR +10.0R +0.448%6,0356,08412,304Toss up
19Steve Unger 2024Jamie Atkinson vs Steve UngerR +7.0D +1.861%4,6294,4619,228Toss up
15John P Carr 2024Daniel Holtmeyer vs John P. CarrR +12.8R +1.938%3,8574,0067,983Toss up
13R Scott Richardson 2024Mitchell Smith vs Scott RichardsonR +9.3R +2.038%4,2304,4038,764Lean R
55Matt Brown 2024Cynthia Nations vs Matthew BrownR +11.5R +3.231%4,6404,9459,731Lean R
71Brandon Achor 2024Cassandra Mayes vs Stephen BrightR +4.3D +3.371%5,3585,01310,529Lean D
34Joey Carr 2024Michael Middlebrook vs Joey L. CarrR +12.0R +7.114%2,7083,1215,917Likely R
11Rebecca Burkes 2024Rey Hernandez vs Rebecca BurkesR +18.9R +7.612%2,9563,4436,497Likely R
62Mark D Mcelroy 2024Dexter R. Miller vs Mark McElroyD +1.9D +8.490%3,9073,2997,315Likely D
81Rj Hawk 2024Gina Thomas-Littlejohn vs R. J. HawkR +18.9R +8.79%4,0864,8679,089Likely R
67Karilyn Brown 2024Andrew Cade Eberly vs Karilyn BrownD +0.7D +9.392%5,4454,52110,119Likely D
32Jack Ladyman 2024Erika Askeland vs Jack LadymanR +19.8R +9.68%3,1773,8507,134Likely R
70Carlton Wing 2024Alex Holladay vs Bo RenshawD +0.8D +10.695%7,0845,73113,009Likely D

Projected Arkansas House vote

100 seats on the ballot
PartyVotesShare
Democrats239,55625.3%
Republicans701,01374.2%
Independents and others4,4710.5%
Total945,033100%

The sum of every district on the ballot. Each district's turnout is its 2024 top of ticket vote on today's lines, scaled to the forecast's 2026 statewide vote less a small share who skip legislative races, split by the district forecast. A district with no candidate from one party gives all its votes to the other. The district table lists each seat's projected votes.

How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.